Bitcoin bulls are staring down a make-or-break resistance band at $98,000–$100,000, a level that veteran trader Trader Mayne describes as the most critical test since Bitcoin topped out near its all‑time high around $125,000. A clean breakout above this zone, he argues, could fundamentally alter the higher‑time‑frame market structure. Failure there, on the other hand, would likely confirm that the latest advance is just another lower high within a broader macro downtrend.
After setting a cycle low near $80,000, Bitcoin has since recovered back to its yearly open, a move Mayne characterizes as offering “a nice couple of trade opportunities” for active market participants. This recovery has already snapped what he calls an “aggressive downtrend” on lower time frames, suggesting that selling pressure has eased. Yet, despite this constructive rebound, he insists the real battle is still ahead.
The core of that battle is the convergence of two factors: a major daily downtrend line and the former support area that turned into resistance around $98,000. That confluence, he says, is the line in the sand between a market that is still dominated by bears and one in which bulls finally reclaim control. It is also the zone that has repeatedly capped price during the series of lower highs that have defined Bitcoin’s macro structure since the peak.
From a high‑time‑frame perspective, those lower highs are crucial. They form the backbone of the ongoing downtrend. A decisive move above $98,000–$100,000 would be the first “meaningful shift” in structure since the all‑time high. It would not only break the pattern of lower highs, but also signal that buyers are strong enough to invalidate the dominant bearish trend that has governed the market for months.
On the four‑hour chart, Bitcoin’s behavior looks “relatively constructive,” according to Mayne. The market is printing higher lows, and a bullish structure break has already occurred on this time frame. However, he underlines that this is not enough. For a genuine trend reversal, Bitcoin must also set a higher high on the same H4 chart. Until that happens, the current rally can just as easily roll over and resume the broader downtrend.
“I need follow‑through,” he emphasizes. Without that follow‑through, the market risks morphing from a promising rebound into a textbook lower high. Mayne currently assigns a roughly 70%–80% chance that Bitcoin ultimately forms a lower high rather than a fresh all‑time high in this push. That risk assessment, however, would change significantly if bulls can convincingly reclaim the $98,000 level and invalidate the daily downtrend.
If price can reclaim $98,000 and hold above it, Mayne says the probability of a lower high drops to about 50%–60%. In his view, that move would not only mark a structural break but also confirm that the $80,000 region was the weekly cycle low. Under that scenario, he expects one last substantial rally phase in Bitcoin’s four‑year cycle, potentially extending into 2025, before a broader bear market takes hold in 2026.
He links this prospective final leg higher to several macro and structural catalysts. These include the anticipated end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening, growing expectations for renewed global liquidity, and psychological shifts such as large traditional finance players showing more openness to Bitcoin exposure. He specifically notes developments like a major asset manager allowing buying of spot Bitcoin products as an example of how institutional sentiment can tilt more bullish late in the cycle.
For bulls, Mayne’s “best‑case” scenario is not a slow, grinding move but a swift, explosive breakout. He wants to see price “just go,” ripping through resistance in a way that gives sidelined traders minimal opportunity to enter at favorable levels. Rapid, one‑sided price discovery through $98,000–$100,000 would suggest overwhelming demand and short covering, reinforcing the idea that the downtrend has ended decisively.
By contrast, if Bitcoin stalls and chops sideways around the yearly open and the $98,000 area, Mayne warns that the pattern would begin to resemble a classic bear flag: a weak consolidation after a sell‑off that often resolves lower. Under that scenario, the rally from $80,000 would likely be interpreted as a counter‑trend bounce rather than the start of a new impulse, greatly increasing the odds that the lower high is already in place.
To navigate this pivotal area, Mayne tracks two key trendlines. The first is the overarching downtrend line that has capped rallies since the top; a breakout above this line, especially if paired with a move through $98,000–$100,000, would confirm bullish continuation. The second is a shorter‑term rising trendline supporting the current advance from $80,000. A breakdown below that shorter‑term trendline would indicate that the most recent structure is “cooked,” signaling that the bounce has likely run its course.
Despite the constructive tone in the near term, Mayne is far from complacent. His personal strategy leans defensive: he plans to sell spot Bitcoin into strength, especially if price approaches $100,000 or extends toward higher resistance levels around $105,000–$110,000. From there, he anticipates a larger cyclical pullback that could drag Bitcoin back into the $50,000–$60,000 range, aligning with the idea of a late‑cycle blow‑off top followed by a deep retracement.
“Any sign of weakness at the yearly open, 98K, 100K, 105–110K—derisk, hedge, ready to get the ** out,” he bluntly advises. In other words, he is willing to participate on the upside but intends to be aggressive in taking profit and reducing risk as price approaches key resistance clusters. For him, these zones are not levels to get stubbornly bullish at, but areas to carefully evaluate whether the trend is exhausting.
Should Bitcoin fail to punch through the $98,000–$100,000 barrier, Mayne expects abundant opportunity on the downside. In his view, a bear market is simply the mirror image of a bull market: the same trend‑following and breakout strategies can be applied in reverse by shorting lower highs and breakdowns, rather than buying higher lows and breakouts. If this resistance holds and price rolls over, he anticipates that traders who are prepared to flip bias can capture substantial downside moves.
Macro conditions currently look supportive of risk assets, which partially underpins Mayne’s cautious optimism. He notes that USD dominance is retreating and that the U.S. dollar index has recently rejected an important resistance area. A weaker dollar historically correlates with stronger performance in equities and crypto, and he argues that “one more low” in the dollar would be the ideal backdrop for another leg higher in risk markets.
Still, macro support does not guarantee a straight path upward for Bitcoin. Market structure remains the primary guide. If bulls cannot defend higher lows on intraday time frames or fail to sustain reclaimed levels on the daily chart, the narrative can shift quickly from accumulation to distribution. Mayne repeatedly underscores that while the set‑up is encouraging, “the bulls still have work to do. The bears are still in control” until that $98,000–$100,000 band is convincingly broken.
For traders and investors trying to position around this inflection point, risk management becomes paramount. The closer Bitcoin trades to major resistance, the less forgiving the market tends to be. One common approach is to scale out of positions as price approaches resistance while simultaneously tightening stop‑losses on any remaining exposure. This way, if the breakout fails, losses are contained; if the breakout succeeds, at least part of the position benefits from the continuation.
Another layer to consider is liquidity and market depth around these levels. Large resistance zones often attract significant order flow: profit‑taking from long‑term holders, new shorts opening positions, and breakout traders piling in simultaneously. That cocktail can generate fake‑outs and rapid wicks in both directions. Short‑term participants need to be especially aware of volatility spikes, slippage, and the possibility that the first attempt to break resistance fails before a second or third try ultimately succeeds.
The psychological aspect of round numbers like $100,000 also plays a role. These milestones tend to amplify emotions, media coverage, and retail participation. If Bitcoin hovers just below six figures, FOMO can drive a surge of aggressive buying, but it can just as quickly flip into panic selling if rejection occurs. Experienced traders often anticipate this behavior and plan entries and exits not exactly at the round number, but slightly before or after, to avoid crowded trades.
Long‑term investors, by contrast, may view this entire resistance region differently. Rather than focusing on short‑term swings between $98,000 and $100,000, they might zoom out to the bigger four‑year cycle thesis that Mayne outlines: a final rally phase into 2025 followed by a bear market in 2026. From that perspective, volatility around current levels is noise, and the more important decision becomes how much exposure to carry into what could be the last strong leg of the cycle.
Regardless of time horizon, the message is consistent: this is a structurally important zone that will likely define Bitcoin’s next major chapter. A sustained break above $98,000–$100,000 would reshape market structure, fuel bullish sentiment, and potentially extend the current cycle. A firm rejection, in contrast, would strengthen the case that the top is already in and that the march toward a new bear market has quietly begun.
At this crossroads, patience and clarity are as valuable as any indicator. Until price either convincingly clears resistance or decisively breaks its rising short‑term trendline, the market remains in a state of tension. Traders who accept that uncertainty and plan for multiple outcomes—rather than betting everything on one scenario—are best positioned to navigate whatever comes next as Bitcoin confronts its defining test at $98,000–$100,000.