Li Hua Yi sees ‘no reason’ to lock in gains as post‑Hormuz rally gathers pace
Liquid Capital founder Li Hua Yi is urging investors to stay the course in risk assets, arguing that the relief rally sparked by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still has room to run and is not yet at a stage where profit‑taking makes sense.
Posting on X from his account @Jackyi_ld, Yi framed the reopening as a decisive inflection point: with the strait back in operation, he wrote, “the war has officially ended” and “peace is the only best choice.” Against that backdrop, he said he “remain[s] optimistic about this rebound” and currently sees “no reason to take profits” as equities and crypto continue to grind higher.
His comments follow weeks of market turmoil tied to the partial shutdown of one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles around 20 million barrels of crude and condensates per day, saw traffic plunge by more than 95% at the height of the crisis amid missile attacks, spiraling insurance costs and broad uncertainty over safe passage.
A ceasefire agreement, combined with U.S. President Donald Trump’s explicit warnings that he would target Iranian infrastructure if the strait remained closed, has since helped restore a degree of calm. Shipping flows are moving toward normalization, even if throughput has yet to climb back to pre‑war levels. That incomplete recovery, in Yi’s view, is precisely what fuels the current “peace trade”: positioning has been shaken out, but the broader economic and market cycle remains intact.
Risk appetite rotates rather than retreats
Yi argues that this environment favors a continued squeeze higher across risk assets rather than a topping pattern. He points to three visible signals of resurgent risk appetite:
– The S&P 500 has broken out to new all‑time highs, suggesting equity investors are willing to look through recent geopolitical shocks.
– MicroStrategy is “continuing to buy” Bitcoin, reinforcing the narrative that institutional and corporate demand for BTC remains strong even after a turbulent macro backdrop.
– Smaller altcoins – he specifically highlights “Hawthorn Coin” as an example – are “taking turns to perform,” indicating a classic late‑cycle rotation as capital moves from blue‑chip crypto into higher‑beta names.
MicroStrategy’s own disclosures echo this story. Between late December and early January, the company acquired another 1,287 BTC for roughly 116.3 million dollars. That brought its total stash to 673,783 Bitcoin, at an aggregate cost of about 50.55 billion dollars. At recent market prices, that position sits on an unrealized gain of around 12.4 billion, underscoring how much leverage MicroStrategy now has to the Bitcoin price and, by extension, to broader crypto sentiment.
Yi’s “no reason to take profits” remark encapsulates a wider belief gaining traction in trading circles: the Hormuz scare forced a violent but short‑lived repricing of risk without fundamentally ending the bull phase. Oil’s initial spike toward levels consistent with a severe supply shock has since moderated as tankers cautiously resume transit and traders assign a low, though non‑zero, probability to a renewed, full‑scale confrontation.
Even traditionally cautious institutional analysts now frame the episode as a near‑miss rather than the start of a structural energy crisis. Insurance costs are elevated, shipowners remain wary, and some routes are still rerouted or delayed – but the market is increasingly treating those frictions as temporary rather than existential.
A rally built on uneasy foundations
Beneath the relief, however, the setup remains fragile. Energy specialists note that flows through the Strait of Hormuz are still “severely but likely temporarily disrupted.” Any serious attempt to close the passage again would instantly remove up to 20 million barrels a day from global supply – a shock without precedent in modern oil markets.
If that worst‑case scenario were to resurface, it would collide with risk assets sitting at or near record levels. U.S. equity indices are pricing an almost Goldilocks backdrop of easing inflation, resilient growth and contained geopolitical risk. Crypto proxies such as MicroStrategy, along with Bitcoin itself and speculative altcoins, are similarly embedding the assumption that the macro glide path will stay relatively smooth.
For traders, then, Yi’s stance amounts to a high‑conviction wager that three conditions will hold:
1. The ceasefire will remain in place and maritime traffic will continue to normalize.
2. Trump’s threats – and broader international pressure – will deter further aggressive action around the strait.
3. The ongoing “melt‑up” in stocks, Bitcoin‑linked equities and smaller “Hawthorn‑style” tokens still has room to extend before positioning becomes dangerously crowded.
Whether that view proves farsighted or complacent will depend less on chart patterns and more on the hard reality of tankers passing safely through a narrow waterway off Iran’s coast.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much to markets
Part of the reason Yi’s comments carry weight is the sheer strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. It is the main artery for oil exports from major Gulf producers, and disruptions there reverberate across everything from transport costs to inflation expectations. When traders price in a sustained blockage, they are effectively modeling a scenario of higher energy prices, weaker global growth and tighter financial conditions.
Conversely, when fears around Hormuz ease, the entire risk spectrum can re‑rate. Airlines, shipping companies, manufacturers and emerging‑market importers all benefit from lower fuel costs and reduced volatility. That improvement in macro visibility tends to support higher equity multiples and a greater willingness to allocate to volatile assets like crypto.
Yi is effectively arguing that the market has just undergone a rapid “stress test” and passed: the system absorbed a severe geopolitical shock, repriced quickly, and is now resetting at higher levels as peace – however fragile – becomes the base case again.
How investors might interpret the ‘no‑profit‑taking’ stance
For portfolio managers and retail traders, Yi’s message does not necessarily imply blind optimism or maximum leverage. Instead, it can be read as a call to avoid emotional selling just because prices have bounced.
In practical terms, that might mean:
– Maintaining core exposure to broad equity indices while trimming only truly overheated names.
– Keeping a strategic Bitcoin allocation if it fits one’s risk profile, rather than selling solely on short‑term gains after the Hormuz rebound.
– Rotating within crypto – for example, from extremely illiquid micro‑caps into higher‑quality altcoins – rather than exiting the asset class entirely.
– Using options or staggered stop‑losses to hedge downside risk instead of fully closing positions.
Yi’s emphasis on rotation – S&P highs, MicroStrategy accumulation, “Hawthorn Coin” outperformance – suggests he sees the rally as broadening, not narrowing. That breadth is typically associated with healthier uptrends, even if corrections along the way remain likely.
Key risks that could challenge Yi’s optimism
Still, there are several obvious threats to the “no reason to take profits” thesis:
– Renewed geopolitical escalation: Any significant attack on tankers or energy infrastructure in or near Hormuz could instantly revive panic and reverse the current rally.
– Sticky inflation from higher energy prices: Even a partial disruption can feed into fuel costs and headline inflation, forcing central banks to stay hawkish for longer.
– Positioning and leverage: If too many investors crowd into the same “peace trade,” markets can become vulnerable to sharp air pockets when sentiment shifts.
– Crypto‑specific shocks: Large hacks, regulatory enforcement actions or corporate blow‑ups in the digital‑asset space can derail crypto even if macro conditions are supportive.
Astute traders therefore treat Yi’s view as one piece of the puzzle rather than a signal to abandon risk management. The backdrop may favor bulls, but it is not free of tail risks.
What to watch next
Investors trying to gauge whether Yi’s confidence is justified can monitor a few concrete indicators:
– Shipping and insurance data around Hormuz: rising volumes and falling war‑risk premiums would validate the “peace as baseline” narrative.
– Oil prices and volatility: a gradual drift lower or sideways movement in crude would support the idea that markets see the supply threat as contained.
– Flows into risk assets: sustained inflows into equity funds, Bitcoin ETFs and large‑cap crypto projects would confirm that institutional players are leaning into the rebound.
– Policy rhetoric from Washington and Tehran: de‑escalatory language and diplomatic engagement would reinforce the foundation of the rally; sharp reversals in tone would do the opposite.
Macro implications beyond crypto
Although the most eye‑catching moves have been in Bitcoin and speculative altcoins, the reopening of Hormuz has broader macro implications. A stable energy corridor can:
– Ease pressure on inflation in importing economies.
– Support earnings for energy‑intensive industries.
– Reduce the risk premium embedded in global bond yields.
– Encourage central banks to pivot more confidently toward neutral or even slightly easier policy stances.
If that scenario plays out, it underpins the very environment in which Yi believes risk assets can continue their climb: moderate inflation, decent growth and relatively cheap capital for both traditional businesses and crypto projects.
The bottom line
Li Hua Yi is effectively planting a flag on the bullish side of the debate: in his assessment, the Hormuz shock has reset nerves but not broken the underlying uptrend in equities and digital assets. With the S&P 500 at new highs, MicroStrategy aggressively adding to its Bitcoin trove, and altcoins rotating into the spotlight, he sees a market that is still climbing the proverbial wall of worry rather than peaking in euphoria.
Whether investors choose to follow that call will depend on their tolerance for geopolitical risk and drawdowns. But as long as supertankers keep slipping through the narrow channel off Iran’s coast without incident, Yi believes there is, for now, “no reason to take profits.”