Citi forecasts a $5.5 trillion tokenized securities market by 2030, arguing that a growing share of Treasuries, equities, and funds will migrate to blockchain-based infrastructure as Wall Street modernizes its plumbing.
In its “Tokenization 2030: Wall Street On-Chain” report, the bank estimates that today’s real‑world asset (RWA) tokenization market – currently around $17 billion – could expand to roughly $5.5 trillion by the end of the decade. Citi frames this as its base case, but also provides a lower scenario of $2.7 trillion and an upside projection of $8.2 trillion, depending on the pace of institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.
The forecast focuses specifically on securities and real‑world assets that can be represented and settled on-chain. That includes U.S. Treasury bills, public company stocks, investment funds, and a wide range of traditional financial products that are now handled through legacy systems.
A major pillar of Citi’s outlook is the U.S. Treasury market. The bank expects around 10% of outstanding U.S. Treasury bills to be tokenized by 2030. This segment is already tightly linked to digital assets because stablecoins hold a significant portion of their reserves in short‑term U.S. government debt. According to Citi, the continued expansion of stablecoins alone could generate roughly $1 trillion in additional demand for Treasuries.
Equities are another key driver. Citi projects that approximately 3% of the U.S. public stock market could shift into tokenized form over the same period. The bank ties this to a behavioral change on the retail side: a 10% move by U.S. retail investors from traditional brokerages to digital, blockchain‑native trading platforms could, by Citi’s estimates, translate into about $2.6 trillion in demand for tokenized stocks and related instruments.
Taken together, these projections suggest that tokenization is moving far beyond crypto‑native assets like Bitcoin or DeFi tokens. The emerging focus is on established markets that already host deep pools of capital and strict regulatory oversight, such as government bonds, blue‑chip equities, and regulated funds. For institutional players, tokenization is less about speculative new coins and more about upgrading how familiar instruments are issued, traded, and settled.
Stablecoins sit at the center of Citi’s thesis. The bank views them as the “digital cash” layer that enables on‑chain settlement of tokenized securities. By providing a programmable, 24/7 settlement asset, stablecoins can significantly reduce the frictions, delays, and counterparty risks associated with traditional payment rails. Citi has also connected the rise of tokenized deposits and stablecoins to the idea of “always‑on finance,” where markets, payments, and collateral movements operate continuously rather than being constrained by business hours and cut‑off times.
Ryan Rugg, Citi’s global head of digital assets for Treasury and Trade Solutions, has previously argued that tokenization is already reshaping financial services. In this view, tokenized securities, funds, and Treasury products settled via stablecoins could allow investors to move from cash to on‑chain assets and back again with minimal delays, bypassing many of the constraints of legacy clearing and settlement systems.
Despite the optimistic numbers, Citi stresses that the model can only scale with robust compliance, custody, and market structure in place. Tokenized instruments must be tied to legally enforceable ownership records, not simply track the price of an asset on a blockchain. That means bridging on‑chain tokens with off‑chain registries, corporate actions, and regulatory reporting – a non‑trivial operational and legal challenge for incumbents.
Recent market estimates highlight that tokenized real‑world assets have already grown sharply, with the sector now frequently cited in the tens of billions of dollars, excluding stablecoins. Within this category, tokenized U.S. Treasuries have emerged as one of the dominant use cases, reflecting the strong demand for on‑chain, dollar‑like yield products. Much of this activity still sits on Ethereum, where major asset managers and specialized tokenization platforms are rolling out products aimed at both institutional and sophisticated retail investors.
Citi’s projections also sit alongside other large‑scale forecasts from traditional finance. Standard Chartered, for example, has suggested that tokenized assets – including both stablecoins and tokenized RWAs – could reach around $4 trillion by the end of 2028. Citi’s $5.5 trillion base case stretches the horizon to 2030 and focuses explicitly on securities, placing them at the heart of Wall Street’s digital asset strategy, with tokenized Treasuries, public equities, and stablecoin settlement as primary growth engines.
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Why Wall Street cares about tokenization
For major banks and asset managers, tokenization is less about embracing speculative crypto culture and more about upgrading core market infrastructure. Traditional trading, clearing, and settlement still rely on fragmented systems, multiple intermediaries, and batch‑based processes that can take days to fully complete a transaction.
By moving securities on‑chain, institutions see the chance to:
– Shorten settlement times from days to near‑instant.
– Reduce operational risk and reconciliation errors.
– Enable 24/7 trading and asset transfers instead of limited market hours.
– Open up fractional ownership and micro‑investment opportunities.
– Automate corporate actions, collateral management, and compliance.
Citi’s forecast essentially assumes that these operational and capital‑efficiency benefits will outweigh the costs and regulatory hurdles of adopting blockchain‑based systems at scale.
How tokenization works for traditional securities
In a basic tokenization model, a regulated entity – such as a bank, broker‑dealer, or fund administrator – holds the underlying asset (for example, a basket of Treasuries or shares in a fund) and issues a corresponding number of tokens on a blockchain. Each token represents a legally recognized claim on the underlying asset or pool.
Investors buy, sell, and transfer the tokens on‑chain, while the custodian or issuer maintains the linkage between token ownership and off‑chain legal records. Smart contracts can automate certain functions, such as interest payments, redemptions, or voting rights, as long as these are backed by enforceable legal agreements and regulatory approvals.
This architecture allows the benefits of blockchain – programmability, transparency, faster settlement – to be applied without abandoning existing legal frameworks around securities issuance and ownership.
The role of stablecoins and tokenized cash
Citi’s emphasis on stablecoins reflects a crucial point: tokenized securities alone are not enough. To realize the full advantage of on‑chain markets, there must also be a dependable on‑chain cash instrument for settling trades.
Stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits fill this gap by:
– Providing a blockchain‑native settlement asset pegged to fiat currency.
– Allowing delivery‑versus‑payment (DvP) on-chain, reducing settlement risk.
– Supporting instantaneous margin calls and collateral swaps.
– Enabling cross‑border transactions without traditional correspondent banking delays.
As tokenized securities volumes grow, demand for compliant, institution‑grade stablecoins or tokenized deposits is expected to increase in parallel – which is why Citi connects stablecoin adoption directly to rising demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Regulatory and technical hurdles ahead
While the numbers in Citi’s forecast are large, they are not guaranteed. Several obstacles could slow or reshape the trajectory:
– Regulation: Securities laws, custody rules, and settlement regulations were not designed with tokenized instruments in mind. Authorities are still working out how to treat on‑chain records, what qualifies as a security token, and how investor protections should apply.
– Interoperability: Multiple blockchains and proprietary platforms may fragment liquidity. Institutions will need interoperable standards or shared infrastructure to avoid recreating existing silos in digital form.
– Security and custody: Safeguarding private keys and ensuring institution‑grade custody solutions is critical. Major investors will demand the same or higher security standards for tokenized assets as for traditional securities.
– Market structure: Central securities depositories, clearing houses, and exchanges all have stakes in the current system. Shifting to tokenized models requires new roles, revenue models, and risk‑management frameworks.
Citi’s range of outcomes – from $2.7 trillion to $8.2 trillion – reflects uncertainty around how quickly these issues will be resolved.
What tokenization could mean for investors
If Citi’s projections play out, the investing experience in 2030 could look quite different:
– Retail investors might access tokenized slices of blue‑chip stocks, bond portfolios, or private funds for smaller minimums, with near‑instant settlement and 24/7 markets.
– Institutions could optimize collateral in real time, instantly moving tokenized Treasury positions across venues and counterparties.
– Cross‑border investment flows might rely more on on‑chain settlement with tokenized securities and stablecoins, reducing the need for multiple intermediaries.
However, the user interface may remain familiar; many investors may not even realize they are interacting with blockchain infrastructure behind the scenes. The shift could be more about “how markets work underneath” than visible changes in trading apps.
Competition between blockchains and platforms
Citi’s note that Ethereum currently hosts a large portion of tokenized RWA activity underscores another dimension of the story: competition among blockchains and tokenization providers. As volumes rise:
– Public blockchains like Ethereum and its scaling networks will vie with permissioned or private chains favored by consortia of banks.
– Asset managers and fintechs will compete to become the preferred issuers and servicers of tokenized bonds, funds, and equities.
– Market participants will weigh trade‑offs between openness, regulatory comfort, transaction costs, and performance.
This competitive environment may drive rapid experimentation in product design and infrastructure, even as regulators push for standardization.
How Citi’s forecast fits into the bigger digital asset picture
Citi’s $5.5 trillion estimate is not about the total crypto market, but specifically about tokenized traditional securities and real‑world assets. It suggests that by 2030, the largest part of on‑chain value might not be native cryptocurrencies but familiar instruments – government debt, public stocks, and regulated funds – living on new rails.
In that sense, the report points to a convergence: crypto technology and traditional finance increasingly overlap, with blockchain serving as infrastructure rather than an entirely separate parallel system. Wall Street’s digital asset strategy, in Citi’s view, is likely to revolve around bringing existing markets on‑chain rather than betting primarily on new, untested asset classes.
Outlook to 2030
Whether the market ultimately lands closer to Citi’s $2.7 trillion low case, its $5.5 trillion base case, or the $8.2 trillion high case will depend on three main factors:
1. Regulatory progress: Clear, harmonized rules for tokenized securities, stablecoins, and digital custody.
2. Institutional commitment: Banks, asset managers, and infrastructures willing to overhaul systems and processes, not just run pilots.
3. Market demand: Investors embracing digital platforms for access, speed, and new product structures, including fractional ownership and 24/7 trading.
Citi’s report signals that one of the world’s largest banks sees sufficient momentum across these dimensions to justify a multi‑trillion‑dollar market by 2030. If that vision materializes, tokenized securities could become a core pillar of global finance rather than a niche side experiment of the crypto industry.