XRP price analysis: XRP clings to $1 support as ETF demand and on‑chain signals strengthen
XRP is hovering around $1.05, with buyers repeatedly stepping in to defend the psychologically important $1 mark after a difficult month for the token. Despite persistent weakness on the chart, capital flows into XRP-focused exchange‑traded products and a pickup in network activity are giving bulls at least a foothold as the market decides whether $1 will hold or finally give way.
Over the last seven days, XRP has slipped more than 7%, and it is down roughly 19% across the past 30 days. During the last 24 hours, the price has traded in a narrow band between $1.04 and $1.07, underscoring a period of consolidation right on top of major support. The lack of a decisive breakout in either direction highlights how carefully traders are watching this zone.
Even with the recent decline, XRP remains a large‑cap asset. It currently holds the #6 spot by market capitalization at around $65.4 billion. Daily trading volume above $1.1 billion shows that liquidity and participation remain strong, even if sentiment has been subdued by months of downward pressure.
From a longer‑term perspective, the token is still deeply underwater. XRP is trading far below its all‑time high of $3.65 set in July 2025. On a 12‑month basis, the coin has shed more than 50% of its value, and it is down about 49% over the last 200 days. This places the current consolidation at $1 within a broader, established downtrend rather than an isolated pullback.
Recent technical commentary has described XRP as sitting near a 20‑month low. In that context, analysts have identified $1 as the decisive battlefield: if this level fails, the next significant supports are clustered around $0.85 and $0.70. A drop into that zone would represent a deeper breakdown and likely trigger another wave of capitulation from weaker hands.
For now, the structure is relatively straightforward. Holding above $1 keeps the door open for a base‑building phase and eventual recovery. To convincingly shift momentum back to the bulls, price would need to push through and sustain levels above $1.12, and then overcome the next resistance band near $1.27. Without those confirmations, any bounce is vulnerable to being labeled a mere relief rally within a broader bearish trend.
ETF flows remain a rare bright spot
One of the more striking developments is that XRP‑linked funds and ETFs continue to see net inflows even as price grinds near multi‑month lows. On June 26, XRP products recorded roughly $15.63 million in single‑day net inflows, topping all major crypto funds. On the same day, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $444.51 million leave the market, while Ethereum vehicles reported outflows of approximately $12.85 million.
The positive bias in XRP fund flows is not just a one‑off data point; it has turned into a sustained trend. XRP spot ETFs have now logged seven consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling about $144.69 million over that period. This consistency stands in contrast to heavy selling pressure in other large‑cap crypto funds.
During the same seven‑week stretch, Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $7.73 billion in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost around $1.18 billion. Earlier flow reports already showed XRP products outperforming their Bitcoin and Ethereum counterparts for at least five straight weeks. Additional analysis under the CLARITY Act framework estimated that XRP ETFs attracted roughly $1.44 billion in cumulative inflows across the first six weeks of this buying wave, even though the spot price continued to sag.
This divergence between price and fund demand is central to understanding the current XRP setup. It suggests that institutional and sophisticated investors are still allocating capital to XRP exposure despite the weak chart. Those inflows have not yet been strong enough to force a sustained uptrend, but they likely play a role in cushioning downside moves and stabilizing price around $1.
On‑chain activity shows renewed engagement
Alongside ETF demand, network data provide another piece of cautiously optimistic evidence. Analyst Ali Charts reported a notable increase in XRP network activity over the past two weeks. Daily active addresses climbed from around 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500 more recently, a jump that indicates rising on‑chain participation.
An increase in active addresses usually signals that more users are sending, receiving or otherwise interacting with the token and its ecosystem. That does not automatically translate into higher prices, but it can mark the early stages of renewed network interest after a quiet period. When such on‑chain strength coincides with a retest of major price support, traders pay close attention.
Higher activity can also be interpreted as a sign that long‑term holders, payment users, or speculative traders are repositioning at what they perceive as attractive levels. If these participants continue to accumulate or deploy capital while price remains compressed, it can create a foundation for a later trend reversal once broader market conditions improve.
Technical indicators hint at a possible short‑term bottom
Technically, XRP is flashing a couple of early reversal signals on the daily chart. According to Ali Charts, the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator has printed a “9” buy signal, a pattern that historically has sometimes preceded short relief rallies of one to four daily candles. This does not guarantee a reversal, but it often appears when selling pressure is becoming exhausted.
At the same time, the last three daily candles have formed what many chartists identify as a Morning Star Doji pattern. This formation typically appears after a downtrend and is viewed as a potential local bottom signal: it combines a strong bearish candle, an indecisive Doji, and then a bullish candle that pushes back into the prior range.
If these signals gain follow‑through and buying volume picks up, Ali suggests XRP could make a move toward $1.30. That target aligns with previously tested resistance regions and overlaps with earlier analyses that highlighted $1.20 as the first meaningful recovery checkpoint, followed by $1.24 and $1.30 as subsequent upside objectives.
However, traders should remember that patterns can fail, especially in choppy markets. Without a clear increase in spot volume and stronger confirmation on higher‑timeframe charts, even well‑known bullish signals can be overwhelmed by macro selling, negative headlines, or renewed risk‑off sentiment across the crypto sector.
Derivatives market reset may set the stage for the next major move
Beyond spot and ETF markets, XRP’s derivatives landscape has undergone a sharp reset. Data from CryptoOnchain reveal a heavy deleveraging phase in recent days, with long liquidations jumping to almost $3 million over the past week – an increase of more than 800% compared to the prior month.
Open interest in XRP derivatives has likewise dropped, sliding from around $1.18 billion to roughly $1.04 billion. Meanwhile, funding rates turned deeply negative, indicating that traders who had been betting on higher prices were forced out of positions, while short‑biased traders are now paying a premium to maintain their bets.
This combination – flushed‑out longs, reduced open interest, and negative funding – often means excessive leverage on one side of the market has been removed. A “cleaner” derivatives environment can reduce the risk of cascading liquidations and sometimes creates conditions for sharper, more directional moves when a new trend takes hold.
Importantly, a reset does not automatically imply a bullish outcome. It simply means that both bulls and bears may be starting from a more neutral leverage position. From here, a strong catalyst – either positive or negative – can drive a sizable breakout as fresh leverage builds in whichever direction begins to dominate.
Why the $1 level matters so much for XRP
The intense focus on the $1 mark is not just psychological; it is also rooted in market structure. Over past cycles, $1 has frequently acted as both a ceiling and a floor for XRP, attracting large order flows, acting as a reference point for traders, and serving as a benchmark for sentiment: above $1, the narrative tends to turn optimistic; below it, fear and frustration often grow.
A sustained break below $1 would confirm that sellers remain in firm control and could encourage further technical selling toward the cited supports at $0.85 and $0.70. Many short‑term traders use such breaks as triggers to exit, which can accelerate declines. Furthermore, algorithms and quant strategies that track key round numbers may switch biases, adding additional selling pressure.
Conversely, each successful defense of $1 helps to build a case that strong hands are accumulating in this zone. If buyers continue to absorb selling here, and if macro conditions in crypto stabilize or improve, this band could evolve into a longer‑term accumulation range between roughly $1 and $1.30. Over time, such ranges sometimes precede major reversals.
How ETF inflows and on‑chain data fit into a broader XRP thesis
For investors trying to interpret these mixed signals, it can help to think in terms of time horizons. ETF inflows and rising active addresses generally speak to medium‑ and long‑term interest in the asset. They imply that, despite disappointing price action, significant investors and network users see value or potential in XRP at current levels.
By contrast, daily price swings and derivatives data tend to reflect short‑term sentiment and positioning. Heavy long liquidations and negative funding, for example, tell a story of recent pain for bullish traders rather than a fundamental shift in the project’s prospects.
When long‑horizon indicators (such as fund flows and network usage) move in a constructive direction while short‑term metrics (like price, momentum, and leverage) look washed‑out or oversold, it often sets up a tug‑of‑war phase. Markets can stay suppressed for a while, but they also become more sensitive to positive catalysts – whether regulatory developments, macro tailwinds, or ecosystem growth news.
Key risk factors that could break XRP’s support
Despite the hopeful signs, several risk factors could still send XRP below $1. A renewed wave of risk aversion in global markets, driven by macroeconomic data or geopolitical events, would likely pressure all high‑beta assets, including major cryptocurrencies. In that scenario, technical supports can fail quickly.
Another risk is continued underperformance relative to other large‑cap coins. If capital rotates heavily into competing ecosystems while ignoring XRP, even persistent ETF inflows might not be enough to offset selling in the spot market. Additionally, any negative legal or regulatory headlines related to XRP’s ecosystem could swiftly erode investor confidence.
There is also the possibility that the recent uptick in active addresses represents short‑term speculative usage, arbitrage, or one‑off events, rather than durable growth in real economic activity on the network. If those addresses fade as quickly as they appeared, the bullish interpretation of the on‑chain data would weaken.
What traders and investors might watch next
In the near term, market participants are likely to monitor a handful of critical metrics:
– The $1 price level: whether daily and weekly closes can stay above this mark.
– Volume on rebounds: a push toward $1.12-$1.30 supported by strong volume would carry more weight than a low‑liquidity bounce.
– ETF and fund flows: continued net inflows would reinforce the thesis that institutional demand is quietly accumulating exposure at lower prices.
– Active addresses and other on‑chain metrics: a sustained uptrend in engagement would support the narrative of growing network usage.
– Derivatives positioning: shifts in funding rates and open interest can reveal when a new wave of leverage is building in either direction.
If XRP can combine a successful defense of $1 with steady ETF inflows, improving on‑chain activity, and gradually recovering technical structure above $1.12 and $1.27, the case for a medium‑term trend reversal will grow stronger. If, instead, $1 finally breaks on high volume and key supports fail to hold, traders may have to brace for a deeper leg down toward the lower support zones already outlined.
For now, XRP sits at a crossroads: structurally weak after a long decline, but supported by quiet accumulation in funds, a healthier derivatives backdrop, and flickers of renewed activity on its network. How this tension resolves around the $1 level is likely to define XRP’s next major move.