XRP price compresses below $1.20 as ETF demand climbs and exchange supply thins
XRP is trading in a tight band just under a key ceiling, with growing ETF inflows and shrinking exchange balances quietly shifting the backdrop for the next major move.
On July 6, XRP changed hands around $1.14, edging about 0.21% higher over the previous 24 hours. Intraday, the token oscillated between roughly $1.13 and $1.16, with daily trading volume hovering near $1.25 billion. By market capitalization, XRP still holds sixth place, with a total value close to $70.98 billion.
From a performance perspective, the token has clawed back some ground but remains well below last year’s levels. XRP is up about 8.77% over the last seven days and 4.23% over the past month, yet it is still down roughly 48.95% compared with a year ago. The current price structure reflects a market in repair mode after a heavy drawdown, not yet in full-on expansion.
$1.14 turns into a battleground, $1.10-$1.20 defines the short-term range
Recent price action shows XRP attempting to base out above areas that previously acted as resistance. The token pushed through the $1.14 zone that had repeatedly capped rallies, only to meet fresh selling pressure near $1.158. That rejection nudged the price back toward $1.146 and effectively converted the session into a test of newly formed support.
Bulls now need the former resistance area around $1.14 to hold as a floor. If buyers fail to defend this region, XRP could be dragged back toward the $1.10 support band, where demand has repeatedly stepped in during prior rebound attempts. For now, $1.10 is shaping up as a critical line that separates a constructive pullback from a deeper retracement.
Momentum indicators improve, but no decisive breakout yet
On the technical side, indicators are starting to lean in favor of the bulls, but the move remains more of a cautious recovery than a strong trend reversal.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near 51.79, above its moving average around 39.69. That shift suggests buyers have regained short-term control after a period of oversold or lethargic conditions. However, with the RSI only marginally above the neutral 50 level, the market’s bounce still looks measured rather than explosive.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also paints a mildly optimistic picture. The histogram is in positive territory near 0.0165, while the MACD line sits around -0.0173, now above the signal line near -0.0338. This configuration confirms a recent bullish crossover and signals that bearish momentum has faded. Still, the MACD values remain close to the zero line, implying that the new uptrend is in its early stages and not yet firmly established.
Key resistance at $1.20 and higher levels on the radar
From a broader technical standpoint, XRP is heading into an important test. After a weekly chart “death cross” warning – where a shorter-term moving average falls below a longer-term one, often perceived as a longer-term bearish sign – traders are watching the $1.20 level with increased focus.
A sustained close above $1.20 would be the first concrete sign that bulls are regaining meaningful control. Analysts have marked $1.10 as the immediate support, while $1.40 is seen as the first level that could significantly improve the mid-term structure and weaken the bearish case built up over the past year.
In this framework, the roadmap is relatively clear:
– Holding $1.10 keeps the rebound narrative intact.
– Reclaiming and defending $1.20 would indicate a shift in favor of buyers.
– Breaking above $1.40 would suggest a stronger, trend-level momentum shift and reduce the risk that current gains are just a bear-market bounce.
Conversely, losing $1.10 would tarnish the recovery scenario, and a drop below $1.05 would add caution. A deeper move under $0.96 would likely confirm renewed structural weakness and reopen lower downside targets.
Two-week compression: neither bullish nor bearish… yet
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has highlighted that XRP’s two-week chart sits in a “compression” phase – a period when price narrows into a range, often preceding a larger directional move. In this view, the market is not showing a clear bullish or bearish bias but is instead coiling between zones where buyers and sellers are both actively defending their territory.
According to this analysis, the upper wicks on recent two-week candles reveal that sellers are stepping in aggressively around $1.40 and $1.65, reinforcing these zones as heavy resistance. At the same time, the lower wicks show that buyers are reliably defending the $1.00-$1.05 region, indicating solid demand whenever XRP dips toward the lower boundary of the range.
Within that broader compression structure, $1.20 is the first waypoint that would signal bulls are beginning to take command. A two-week close above this band would not only neutralize some of the recent downside risk but also indicate that the market is ready to challenge the higher resistance cluster around $1.40 and $1.65.
ETF inflows stand out against broader crypto fund weakness
While spot price action looks hesitant, capital flows tell a more constructive story. XRP spot ETFs have recorded nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, bringing in about $17.19 million even as digital asset funds more broadly have struggled.
This divergence is significant. Over the same period, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have posted net outflows, indicating that some institutional and regulated capital is rotating away from the largest assets and selectively into XRP-linked products. In other words, while the broader crypto fund space has faced withdrawals, XRP has quietly remained a net beneficiary.
Earlier fund data adds to this picture. XRP-based products managed by Bitwise in both the United States and Europe have amassed more than $200 million in net inflows year-to-date. May also saw particularly strong monthly inflows into XRP vehicles, underscoring persistent interest from a segment of professional or regulated investors.
ETF demand vs. price action: a growing disconnect
Despite this steady stream of ETF inflows, XRP’s spot price has yet to reflect an aggressive move higher. The token remains stuck below major resistance zones, especially the much-watched $1.20 band. This creates a notable divergence: regulated products are consistently attracting capital, while the underlying asset is still trading in a recovery channel after last year’s heavy losses.
This disconnect matters for traders. Persistent fund inflows imply that a cohort of longer-horizon or compliance-focused buyers is accumulating XRP exposure, even as short-term market participants hesitate to chase price higher. If spot liquidity thins and demand from both ETFs and individual traders converges, the gap between price stagnation and capital inflows could become an important catalyst for volatility.
However, ETF buying alone is not a guarantee of a sustained rally. For the thesis to fully play out, spot markets need to confirm the signal by breaking through resistance and holding new levels. Until then, the growing fund demand simply builds a supportive backdrop rather than a confirmed trend.
Regulatory backdrop: CLARITY Act delay keeps uncertainty alive
Regulation remains a core narrative driver for XRP, and the CLARITY Act is one of the most closely watched legislative efforts tied to its outlook. The bill was initially expected to reach a key milestone around July 4, but that window has passed without progress. Market watchers are now looking ahead to the next Senate session as a potential decision period.
Every delay extends the timeline for one of XRP’s strongest potential regulatory catalysts. Clarity on the token’s status and on how financial institutions can engage with it would likely shape how aggressively traditional players are willing to allocate capital or build infrastructure around the asset.
If the CLARITY Act continues to drift without resolution, some institutional investors may stay cautious, keeping position sizes smaller than they might otherwise be in a fully clear legal environment. On the other hand, any concrete step forward – even short of full passage – could quickly become a sentiment driver, especially given the existing interest already visible through ETF channels.
Exchange reserves fall to a seven-year low
Beyond regulatory and fund flows, on-chain supply data is quietly reshaping XRP’s trading profile. Exchange reserves – the quantity of XRP held on centralized trading platforms – have fallen to around 1.6 billion tokens, marking a seven-year low. That figure is roughly half of the October 2025 peak near 3.76 billion, indicating a material decline in readily tradable supply.
A CryptoQuant analysis by Arab Chain highlighted an XRP Scarcity Index on Binance climbing to around 0.77, its highest reading since mid-2024. A rising scarcity index suggests XRP is becoming less abundant on that major exchange, potentially due to a combination of lower deposits, higher withdrawals, and a shift toward long-term or off-exchange custody.
When fewer coins sit on exchanges, immediate sell pressure can diminish. Traders potentially have to bid higher to attract sellers if demand accelerates. However, reduced supply on its own does not guarantee a price surge; it merely changes the conditions under which future demand will interact with available liquidity.
Why shrinking exchange balances matter for traders
For short-term traders, falling exchange reserves can cut both ways. If a significant wave of buying hits a market with constrained supply, price may move more sharply than usual. This can benefit momentum traders who position early for a breakout above levels like $1.20 or $1.40.
At the same time, limited on-exchange supply can also amplify downside volatility if sentiment turns abruptly. Large holders moving coins back onto exchanges to sell into strength might catch the market off guard, particularly in a thin order book. This asymmetry is why monitoring both on-chain supply and order-book depth is becoming an increasingly important part of XRP risk management.
For medium- and long-term participants, the key takeaway is that more XRP appears to be migrating into hands that are not looking to trade every fluctuation. That pattern often aligns with accumulation phases, where patient buyers quietly build positions while price grinds sideways.
Decision zone: how traders can frame the current XRP setup
Given the mixture of constructive signals (ETF inflows, shrinking exchange balances, improving indicators) and unresolved risks (stubborn resistance, regulatory delays, lingering bearish technical structures), XRP is best described as sitting in a decision zone rather than in a confirmed trend.
Traders often break this kind of environment down into scenario planning:
– Bullish confirmation scenario
– XRP holds above $1.10 and reclaims $1.20 with strong volume.
– ETF inflows remain positive and possibly accelerate.
– Regulatory news turns incrementally positive, or at least avoids major setbacks.
– Price pushes toward $1.40, and a sustained break above this zone adds evidence of a broader trend reversal.
– Range-bound continuation scenario
– Price continues oscillating between roughly $1.00-$1.20 or $1.05-$1.20.
– ETF inflows remain supportive but not explosive.
– Exchange reserves stay low, reinforcing compression rather than breakout.
– Technical indicators hover around neutral, with RSI churning near 50 and MACD near the zero line.
– Bearish breakdown scenario
– XRP fails to defend $1.10, then loses $1.05 and edges below $0.96.
– ETF demand slows or reverses, and capital rotates back into larger coins or stablecoins.
– Regulatory headlines turn more negative or the CLARITY Act faces extended delays or dilution.
– Selling volume increases from large holders moving coins back onto exchanges.
By mapping these possibilities, market participants can calibrate position size, leverage, and time horizon in line with their own risk tolerance.
What to watch next: catalysts and confirmation signals
Over the coming weeks, several factors are likely to determine whether XRP finally breaks out of its compression phase:
1. Price reaction at $1.10 and $1.20
The way XRP behaves around these levels will reveal a lot about underlying demand. Strong bounces from $1.10 and clean closes above $1.20 would signal growing confidence.
2. Volume patterns on any breakout
A move above $1.20 or $1.40 accompanied by low volume is more susceptible to failure. High participation would suggest that sidelined capital is re-engaging.
3. Persistence of ETF inflows
If XRP funds continue to attract net inflows while the rest of the market struggles, that divergence may become increasingly difficult for spot price to ignore.
4. Updates around the CLARITY Act and broader regulation
Even incremental developments, committee progress, or public statements can influence sentiment, given XRP’s historically tight link to regulatory narratives.
5. Further shifts in exchange reserves and scarcity metrics
Continued declines in on-exchange balances would reinforce the supply-constrained backdrop, especially on major venues where most retail and derivative trading occurs.
Bottom line: constructive signals, but $1.20 remains the gatekeeper
XRP currently sits in a nuanced position. On one side, ETF inflows, lower exchange reserves, and improving technical indicators hint at accumulating strength beneath the surface. On the other, the token is still battling crucial resistance at $1.20, with additional hurdles looming at $1.40 and $1.65, and regulatory clarity remains a moving target.
In the near term, the structure is straightforward: maintaining support around $1.10 keeps the recovery story alive; regaining and holding above $1.20 would mark a meaningful step toward a more bullish phase; and a decisive push through $1.40 would be the clearest signal yet that XRP is shaking off its longer-term downtrend.
Until those confirmations appear, XRP remains in a compressed, two-sided market where both upside and downside scenarios are still open – and where the next major two-week candle close could set the tone for the rest of the quarter.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Digital assets are volatile and speculative, and anyone considering exposure to XRP or related products should conduct independent research and evaluate their own risk tolerance before making decisions.