HBAR’s price trajectory appears increasingly grim as both technical indicators and foundational metrics of the Hedera ecosystem continue to decline. After peaking at $0.3052 in August, HBAR has plunged over 47% to trade near $0.1600—a clear signal that a prolonged bear market has taken hold. With minimal signs of reversal, investors are bracing for further losses, potentially down to the $0.1015 level, a crucial support zone that aligns with historical price floors and Murrey Math Lines.
A major contributor to HBAR’s ongoing slide is the deteriorating health of the Hedera ecosystem. Despite the presence of high-profile corporations such as Google, IBM, Boeing, and LG on its governing council, there’s limited transparency or evidence that these companies are actively deploying Hedera’s blockchain in real-world applications. This disconnect between governance prestige and practical utility continues to weigh heavily on investor confidence.
In the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, Hedera’s presence remains underwhelming. Its total value locked (TVL) has dropped sharply by 30% in the last month, now sitting at approximately $168 million. While that figure might seem impressive in isolation, it pales in comparison to the $280 billion locked across the broader DeFi space. Emerging networks like Base, Unichain, and Katana have rapidly overtaken Hedera in user adoption and developer activity, further diminishing its competitive edge.
One of the most glaring issues is the network’s inability to attract top-tier DeFi protocols such as Uniswap, Aave, and PancakeSwap. This lack of integration with established dApps limits liquidity and user engagement, two critical pillars for sustained ecosystem growth. Without a robust DeFi infrastructure, Hedera struggles to position itself as a serious contender in the Layer 1 space.
In the burgeoning sectors of gaming and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Hedera also lags significantly behind competitors. Blockchains like Solana, Polygon, and Immutable have captured the majority of market share in these areas, leaving Hedera with little traction. The recent launch of Stablecoin Studio in 2024 was intended to breathe new life into the platform, but with a total stablecoin supply of only $89 million, the effort has yet to yield meaningful results. For comparison, the broader stablecoin market surpasses $300 billion in circulating assets.
On the technical front, the outlook is equally bleak. HBAR recently invalidated a potential bullish double-bottom pattern by dropping below the $0.2065 support level. Even more concerning is the imminent formation of a death cross, a bearish technical signal triggered when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. This pattern often precedes extended periods of price depreciation.
Moreover, HBAR has decisively broken below the Ichimoku Cloud—a key indicator used by traders to determine momentum and trend direction. The move suggests continued bearish dominance in the market, with the next major support level at $0.1015 now in focus. Should HBAR breach this level, the token could enter uncharted territory, potentially triggering panic selling and a further capitulation in price.
Adding to the pressure is waning developer interest. Hedera has not seen the same level of grassroots innovation that drives success on platforms like Ethereum or Solana. A vibrant developer community is essential for long-term growth, as it fosters ecosystem expansion through the creation of decentralized applications and smart contracts. Without it, user activity stagnates and network utility diminishes.
Another critical concern is the absence of retail and institutional excitement. While early hype around Hedera’s unique hashgraph consensus mechanism garnered attention, it has not translated into sustainable adoption or network effects. In the fast-evolving crypto landscape, lacking momentum can quickly relegate a project to obscurity.
Regulatory uncertainty also casts a shadow over Hedera’s future. Although the project maintains a more corporatized governance model—which some argue could be a hedge against regulatory risk—its vague use cases and limited on-chain activity offer little defense against potential crackdowns. As global regulators increasingly scrutinize digital assets, platforms with unclear value propositions may be among the first to suffer.
To recover, Hedera would need a fundamental shift in strategy. A renewed focus on onboarding influential dApps, fostering a thriving developer community, and highlighting real-world use cases could help restore confidence. Strategic partnerships that go beyond name recognition and deliver measurable outcomes would also be essential in reversing the current downtrend.
In the short term, however, the outlook remains grim. Barring a broad market reversal or a major ecosystem breakthrough, HBAR is likely to continue its descent. As sellers maintain control and technical indicators point to further downside, investors may opt to stay on the sidelines until clearer signs of recovery emerge.