XRP’s price is navigating a critical phase as it tests the $2.40 support level, pressured by a major sell-off from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen. His recent divestment of 50 million XRP, valued at approximately $120 million, has triggered uncertainty in the market, stirring concerns among investors about insider activity and its implications for short-term price dynamics.
As of the latest figures, XRP is trading at $2.43, reflecting a marginal 0.1% decline over the past 24 hours. The token’s performance over the last week shows a 5.4% drop, and the monthly trend is even more bearish, with an 18% decrease. Since peaking at $3.85 in July, XRP has retraced roughly 33%, highlighting a significant correction phase.
Despite the bearish sentiment, the market is showing signs of stabilization. Over the past seven days, XRP has been consolidating within a narrow range of $2.21 to $2.56, suggesting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. Trading volumes have risen notably, with 24-hour spot volume climbing to $4.12 billion — a 19.9% daily increase, signaling heightened market activity.
Derivatives data also points to growing market engagement. According to CoinGlass, open interest in XRP futures rose by 2.86%, while futures trading volume surged 14.56% to reach $5.97 billion. However, these increases are more reflective of renewed speculative interest than a directional bias, suggesting traders are bracing for heightened volatility instead of betting on a clear trend.
Larsen’s large-scale token sale has amplified existing concerns. The timing of the sale — coinciding with XRP’s test of a crucial technical support — sparked accusations of insider selling, with social media users voicing skepticism and warning retail investors of potential manipulation. Despite the wave of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), data from Santiment shows that the broader market has managed to absorb the selling pressure without triggering a full-blown panic.
This is not the first time XRP has faced downward pressure in recent weeks. Earlier in October, macroeconomic jitters, including renewed trade war fears and a spike in liquidations exceeding $130 million, contributed to a sharp sell-off. These events have kept market sentiment firmly in cautious territory.
However, several positive developments may serve as counterweights to the current bearish trend. One of them is the growing anticipation around potential approval for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). Applications from major players such as CoinShares, Bitwise, and Grayscale are currently under review, and analysts estimate a 95% chance of approval. If greenlit, such ETFs could channel between $5 billion and $8 billion into the XRP ecosystem, mirroring the capital inflows Ethereum experienced following ETF optimism earlier this year.
Institutional interest in XRP is also expanding through ecosystem developments. Evernorth, a venture backed by SBI and Kraken, recently secured a $1 billion treasury fund partially tied to XRP holdings. Additionally, Ripple’s native stablecoin RLUSD is nearing a $1 billion market cap, further cementing XRP’s role in cross-border payments and institutional finance.
From a technical standpoint, XRP is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce if buying momentum resumes. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.9, indicating mild bearish momentum but not yet suggesting oversold conditions.
Despite this, all major moving averages — from the 10-day to the 200-day — currently sit above the market price, reinforcing the broader downtrend. To reverse this trajectory, XRP needs to sustain a recovery above the $2.40 mark and push toward the $2.60–$2.70 zone, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band and offers the first area of resistance.
Conversely, a decisive move below $2.10 could accelerate downside risk, potentially triggering another wave of liquidations and dragging the price toward the next key support zone near $1.80. For bullish momentum to reassert itself, XRP must reclaim the $2.70 level and target the $3.00–$3.15 resistance area, which would open the door for a broader recovery.
Looking ahead, the outcome of ETF applications could be a significant catalyst. Approval would not only inject fresh capital but also validate XRP’s utility and legitimacy in the eyes of institutional investors. Moreover, increased use of XRP in real-world financial applications — such as cross-border settlements and stablecoin infrastructures — may lend the token a more robust foundation for long-term price stability.
Another factor to consider is macroeconomic sentiment. With global markets currently reacting sensitively to geopolitical developments, inflation data, and central bank policies, cryptocurrencies like XRP are not immune to external shocks. Investors should watch for upcoming economic indicators and policy shifts that could indirectly influence crypto markets.
Also worth noting is the broader trend in altcoins. While XRP has been under pressure, other major tokens like ETH and SOL have experienced relative strength, indicating that capital rotation within the crypto market may be affecting XRP’s performance. If confidence returns to the altcoin sector, XRP could benefit from renewed investor appetite.
Lastly, historical patterns suggest that heightened FUD often precedes relief rallies. If XRP can maintain its position above the $2.40 support and ETF news breaks favorably, a swift short-term rebound toward previous highs is not out of the question.
In conclusion, while XRP faces immediate challenges due to insider selling and broader market caution, several underlying factors — including ETF prospects, institutional developments, and technical signals — hint at potential stabilization and eventual recovery. However, continued vigilance is necessary, especially if the $2.10 level breaks, which could lead to further downside pressure. For now, all eyes remain on ETF rulings and macro indicators that could steer the next phase of XRP’s price action.