Bitcoin price dips under $64K as traders brace for Fed decision
Bitcoin slipped back below the $64,000 mark on Tuesday, with sellers gaining the upper hand as leveraged positions were unwound and spot ETF products saw fresh outflows ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.
Data shows Bitcoin (BTC) opened the session near $63,706 and extended its slide toward $63,327 as market participants actively reduced exposure before the Fed decision. By later in the day, BTC was hovering around $63,858, down roughly 2.5% over the period, reflecting a cautious, risk-off tone across the market.
Technical breakdown: trendline support gives way
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has lost an important ascending trendline that had been underpinning the recovery from the late-June low near $58,000. Price briefly attempted to reclaim that broken support, but the bounce faded below the $64,000 zone, signaling that buyers lacked conviction at higher levels.
BTC also continues to trade under the 4-hour Supertrend resistance, currently near $65,198. As long as candles close beneath that line, the indicator favors the bearish camp, and the former trendline remains a potential supply zone rather than support. A decisive move above both the Supertrend and that broken trendline would be needed to shift the short‑term bias back toward the upside.
Money flow dynamics underline this cautious tone. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading has slipped to around -0.04, indicating that capital inflows have turned mildly negative. While this is not an extreme reading that would signal aggressive distribution, it does confirm that selling pressure is currently outweighing fresh buying demand.
Mixed signals on the daily chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin presents a more nuanced picture. The price is trading beneath the 20‑day moving average, sitting around $64,449, yet still clings just above the 50‑day moving average near $63,343. This places BTC in a tightening range between short‑term resistance overhead and a key support level beneath it.
Such compression often precedes stronger directional moves. A clean daily close below the 50‑day average could open the door for a deeper retracement, whereas reclaiming the 20‑day average would suggest that the current pullback is more of a consolidation within a broader uptrend.
Momentum indicators are also aligned with this “wait-and-see” stance. The daily relative strength index (RSI) was last seen around 48.13, below its own moving average at 53.58 and slightly under the neutral 50 level. This configuration leaves clear room for further downside if sellers push price under the 50‑day MA, but it also means BTC is not yet in oversold territory where dip‑buyers typically become more aggressive.
Fed meeting heightens demand for cash
The macro backdrop is a crucial driver of the latest weakness. The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting on July 28, with its interest‑rate decision scheduled for release at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to hold a press conference about half an hour later, providing more color on the central bank’s outlook.
Markets largely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep the federal funds rate pinned in its existing 3.50%-3.75% range. However, futures pricing still assigns roughly a one‑in‑three chance to a surprise hike, making this meeting less straightforward than some of the Fed’s recent decisions.
A recent report has suggested that the bar for an immediate rate increase remains relatively high, despite lingering inflation concerns and hawkish remarks from certain policymakers. Cooler inflation data for June and a slight easing in geopolitical tensions both build the case for holding rates steady in the near term.
For Bitcoin and other risk assets, the nuances matter. A surprise hike would likely strengthen the US dollar and drive Treasury yields higher, typically a headwind for non‑yielding, risk‑sensitive assets like BTC. Even if rates are left unchanged, a strongly hawkish tone in Warsh’s commentary-particularly signals that a September hike is still firmly on the table-could weigh on sentiment.
This is why traders are trimming leverage and raising cash into the event. Bitcoin’s drop below $64,000 is not just a technical breakdown; it reflects a broader shift toward defensive positioning as the market braces for potential volatility around one of the most influential macro events of the quarter.
ETF flows tilt negative for Bitcoin, positive for Ether
US spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds recorded net outflows of about $11.64 million on July 27, marking the third consecutive day of withdrawals. This steady bleed indicates softer institutional and professional investor appetite for BTC exposure just ahead of the Fed decision.
BlackRock’s IBIT product led the outflows with around $8.82 million leaving the fund, while Fidelity’s FBTC saw another $2.82 million withdrawn. Even after these moves, the combined net assets of US spot Bitcoin ETFs are still hefty at roughly $78.71 billion, underscoring that the structural adoption story is intact despite short‑term caution.
In contrast, US spot Ether ETFs attracted net inflows of about $9.23 million over the same session. The bulk of that came from an $11.75 million inflow into BlackRock’s ETHA, partially offset by a $2.52 million withdrawal from Invesco’s QETH.
The divergence points to a modest, short‑term preference for Ether over Bitcoin among certain ETF investors, perhaps driven by relative valuation, upcoming network or ecosystem catalysts, or simple portfolio rebalancing. Still, a single day of contrasting flows is far from sufficient to claim a durable institutional rotation from BTC to ETH.
Liquidation map highlights key liquidity pockets
Leveraged positioning remains an important driver of intraday price action. A three‑day liquidation heatmap reveals a dense cluster of open positions between roughly $64,400 and $64,600. If Bitcoin stages a rebound into that area, it could spark a wave of short liquidations, briefly amplifying upside volatility.
However, that same zone overlaps with the 20‑day moving average, increasing the odds that it behaves as a resistance band on the first test. Bulls would need to absorb supply there and then push decisively higher to transform it into a support zone.
Another liquidity concentration appears slightly higher, between about $65,800 and $66,200. For price to realistically test that upper pocket, BTC would first have to break and hold above the 4‑hour Supertrend resistance at $65,198. Until that threshold is reclaimed, rallies may be treated as opportunities to reduce risk rather than the start of a fresh impulse higher.
On the downside, the strongest near‑term liquidity cluster sits in the $62,500-$62,600 range. A clear breakdown below the 50‑day moving average at $63,343 could pull price toward that area as leveraged longs are forced out. Further below, additional support is visible in the $61,800-$62,000 zone, where buyers previously showed interest during late‑June trading.
Short‑term outlook: room for both downside probes and sharp bounces
With daily momentum neutral and price hovering just above the 50‑day MA, Bitcoin is at a pivot point. If the Fed outcome or its messaging surprises on the hawkish side, traders might quickly unwind remaining leveraged longs, potentially driving BTC down into the $62,500 pocket and, in a more aggressive scenario, toward the $62,000 area.
Conversely, a status‑quo decision accompanied by a more balanced or slightly dovish tone could ease immediate macro pressure. In such a case, Bitcoin might grind higher back into the $64,400-$64,600 band, where the reaction of shorts and spot sellers will be critical. A squeeze through that zone, followed by a reclaim of the $65,198 Supertrend level, would significantly improve the technical backdrop.
In other words, the structure leaves room for both a short‑term washout and a swift relief rally-typical conditions around major central bank events when liquidity can thin out and small imbalances in order flow get exaggerated.
Analyst expectations: potential path back to $68K
Despite the current pullback and the cautious tone across derivatives and ETF flows, some market strategists remain constructive on Bitcoin’s near‑term prospects. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, for instance, has argued that the latest decline fits within a broader consolidation phase and does not invalidate the bullish structure formed since the late‑June lows.
He suggests that once the dust from the Fed meeting settles, BTC could make another attempt at the $68,000 region in early August, especially if macro headwinds ease and risk appetite recovers. According to this view, dips into the low‑$60,000s might represent opportunities for patient buyers rather than the start of a deeper bear phase, provided key support levels hold.
However, even optimistic analysts emphasize the importance of risk management in the current environment. The combination of uncertain monetary policy, concentrated leveraged positions, and sensitive ETF flows means that volatility can spike quickly in either direction.
What this means for traders and investors
For short‑term traders, the current setup is largely about reacting to levels and news:
– The 50‑day moving average near $63,343 acts as an immediate line in the sand.
– The $62,500-$62,600 cluster is a high‑interest zone if downside continuation occurs.
– On the upside, $64,400-$64,600 and then $65,198-$66,200 are the areas where liquidity and resistance are likely to converge.
Intraday participants will be watching how price behaves as it approaches these zones, especially in the hours before and after the Fed announcement.
Longer‑term investors, by contrast, may focus less on the day‑to‑day noise and more on whether Bitcoin preserves its broader structure of higher lows established since the late‑June bottom. As long as the market holds above the high‑$50,000s and maintains strong ETF asset bases, the medium‑term thesis of institutionalization and digital‑asset adoption remains intact, even if macro cycles introduce periods of turbulence.
Key scenarios after the Fed decision
Once the Fed decision and press conference conclude, three broad scenarios could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory:
1. Hawkish surprise (rate hike or strong signal of imminent hikes)
– Likely outcome: stronger dollar, rising yields, and risk‑off sentiment.
– Potential BTC impact: increased selling pressure, break below the 50‑day MA, and tests of $62,500 or even lower support.
2. Status quo with balanced or mildly dovish tone
– Likely outcome: relief across risk assets as worst‑case fears fade.
– Potential BTC impact: reclaim of the 20‑day MA, push into the $64,400-$64,600 region, and a possible move toward the mid‑$60,000s if shorts are squeezed.
3. Confusing or mixed messaging
– Likely outcome: elevated volatility without clear direction as traders parse the Fed’s language.
– Potential BTC impact: range‑bound swings between key moving averages, with liquidation levels above and below price repeatedly tested.
In all cases, liquidity pockets highlighted by the liquidation map and the positioning around major moving averages are likely to amplify moves as orders are triggered.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s slip below $64,000 ahead of the Fed decision stems from more than just chart patterns. It reflects a broad move toward caution as traders de‑risk into a pivotal macro event, with ETF flows, leveraged liquidations, and technical levels all reinforcing a defensive stance.
The next decisive move-whether toward the liquidity pool near $62,500 or back toward resistance in the mid‑$60,000s-will likely be shaped by how the Federal Reserve balances its inflation fight against the risks of overtightening. Until that clarity emerges, BTC remains in a compressed, fragile equilibrium where both downside probes and swift relief rallies are firmly on the table.