Bitcoin, decentralized finance (DeFi), and tokenized real‑world assets are emerging as core building blocks of global capital markets and are likely to define the next major phase of crypto’s evolution, according to new research from ARK Invest. The firm argues that these three segments are shifting from experimental technologies to functional financial infrastructure—though their long‑term impact will depend heavily on how regulators respond over the next few years.
In its “Big Ideas 2026” report, ARK projects that the total digital asset market could expand to around $28 trillion by 2030. Within that, Bitcoin alone could account for roughly $16 trillion—about 70% of the entire sector’s value—if it continues to establish itself as a global store of value and macro asset. That scenario implies an order‑of‑magnitude increase from today’s levels and assumes that institutional participation, regulatory clarity, and technological scaling all move in a favorable direction.
These projections are not outlandish, said Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS, who views ARK’s numbers as broadly “reasonable” given current adoption trends and the pace of financial innovation. In her view, crypto‑native platforms are no longer just speculative experiments. They are increasingly competing with, and in some cases complementing, traditional financial services rather than trying to replace them outright.
One of the key shifts Pirovich points to is the strategic posture of leading crypto platforms. Instead of attempting to become new global megabanks or fully centralized gatekeepers, many DeFi protocols and digital asset service providers are focused on gaining worldwide acceptance while working through fragmented, jurisdiction‑by‑jurisdiction compliance requirements. In practice, that means integrating identity checks, disclosures, and risk controls into open financial rails that still maintain programmability and interoperability.
ARK’s report underscores Bitcoin’s evolving role as the foundation of this emerging landscape. The firm expects Bitcoin to keep maturing as “digital gold,” a hedge against monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty. Expanded derivatives markets, spot ETFs, and broader custody infrastructure are seen as catalysts for deeper integration of Bitcoin into portfolios of asset managers, pension funds, and corporates. At the same time, second‑layer networks are designed to support faster and cheaper transactions, making Bitcoin more usable beyond pure store‑of‑value use cases.
DeFi, according to ARK, represents the second major pillar of the next crypto cycle. Lending protocols, decentralized exchanges, on‑chain asset management strategies, and derivatives platforms have already demonstrated that core financial services can run on open, programmable infrastructure. The report suggests that, as these systems continue to improve on security, user experience, and regulatory alignment, more trading, borrowing, and collateral management activities could migrate on‑chain—especially for professional and institutional users seeking 24/7 markets and transparent settlement.
Tokenized real‑world assets (RWA) form the third major driver ARK identifies. By natively representing bonds, money‑market funds, real estate, private credit, and even intellectual property on blockchains, tokenization aims to compress settlement times, lower intermediation costs, and unlock fractional ownership. ARK argues that this area is still early but could eventually dwarf the rest of crypto in sheer volume, as traditional securities and contracts are gradually re‑issued in tokenized formats for efficiency and global distribution.
At the same time, the report stresses that none of these projections are guaranteed. Regulatory clarity is framed as the decisive factor that will determine whether innovation scales into mainstream adoption or remains confined to niche markets. Clear rules on custody, disclosures, market structure, and the legal status of tokens could unlock institutional capital and encourage responsible experimentation. Conversely, inconsistent or overly restrictive regimes might push activity offshore or limit the full benefits of on‑chain finance.
A major challenge ARK highlights is the patchwork nature of current regulation. Different countries define digital assets, stablecoins, and DeFi participation in incompatible ways. This fragmentation increases legal uncertainty and compliance costs for global platforms, and it makes cross‑border operations more complex. As a result, many builders are attempting to design architectures that can adapt to multiple regimes—incorporating features like permissioned access, modular KYC layers, or jurisdiction‑aware smart contracts—without sacrificing the core benefits of decentralization.
For Bitcoin in particular, the next phase is likely to be shaped by its role at the intersection of traditional finance and crypto‑native systems. On the one hand, regulated vehicles such as spot ETFs, listed futures, and bank‑integrated custody give institutions safer, more familiar ways to gain exposure. On the other hand, native Bitcoin rails—self‑custody, multisig arrangements, and second‑layer payment networks—keep reinforcing its ethos of sovereignty and censorship resistance. ARK’s thesis assumes that these two worlds will continue to converge rather than collide.
DeFi’s trajectory will hinge on whether it can satisfy institutional risk, compliance, and governance standards without turning into a thin veneer over centralized infrastructure. That includes stronger formal verification of smart contracts, rigorous audits, clearer accountability frameworks for protocol governance, and insurance mechanisms that can absorb failures without systemic contagion. If these pieces come together, DeFi could evolve from today’s speculative playground into a backbone for collateral markets, treasury operations, and on‑chain asset issuance.
Tokenized assets face a different set of hurdles. Their success depends on legal enforceability: a token that claims to represent a bond or real estate interest must map cleanly to existing ownership and creditor rights. This requires coordination between technology providers, issuers, registries, and legal systems. ARK anticipates that initial traction will come from highly standardized instruments—such as short‑term debt, money‑market products, and high‑grade bonds—where the risk profile and cash flows are already well understood.
If ARK’s $28 trillion scenario materializes, the structure of global capital markets could look notably different by 2030. In that vision, Bitcoin operates as a macro reserve asset; DeFi protocols provide transparent, programmable market infrastructure; and tokenized securities serve as the primary way value is issued, transferred, and settled. Traditional intermediaries would not disappear but would be forced to evolve—shifting from gatekeepers and record‑keepers to service providers offering compliance, analytics, risk management, and user‑friendly interfaces atop open rails.
For investors and companies weighing their strategy over the coming years, the report’s message is less about predicting exact numbers and more about recognizing directionality. The convergence of Bitcoin, DeFi, and tokenization is portrayed as a structural shift rather than a passing cycle. Participants who understand how these components interact—how a Bitcoin treasury strategy can sit alongside on‑chain liquidity management, or how tokenized assets can plug into DeFi collateral networks—may be better positioned if ARK’s thesis plays out.
Ultimately, ARK frames the coming phase of crypto not as a purely speculative boom but as an infrastructural transition. Whether the digital asset market reaches $28 trillion or falls short, the research argues that the core trends are clear: Bitcoin is embedding itself into the macro economy, DeFi is maturing into a serious alternative to legacy financial plumbing, and tokenized assets are beginning to blur the line between “crypto” and traditional securities. Regulation will determine the speed and scope of that transition—but, in ARK’s view, the direction is already set.