Bitcoin options worth $2.1 billion are set to expire, putting renewed pressure on the market and keeping traders laser‑focused on whether the $60,000 zone can continue to act as a floor for BTC.
The contracts, expiring at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Feb. 6 on major derivatives venues, cover roughly 34,000 Bitcoin options. The timing is delicate: risk appetite has been fading, technical indicators have weakened, and BTC has been unable to reclaim lost ground after its recent slide.
Derivatives positioning: Calls dominate, but from significantly higher levels
Despite the pullback in spot prices, call options still outnumber puts. The put‑to‑call ratio sits near 0.60, signaling that a larger portion of open interest had been betting on rising prices in previous weeks. In other words, the options market was heavily skewed toward bullish scenarios when these contracts were initiated.
The max pain level for this batch of BTC options — the price point where the greatest number of options buyers would see their contracts expire worthless — is clustered around $80,000. That is far above current spot prices, leaving the majority of outstanding calls deep out of the money.
This configuration matters. When max pain is somewhat close to spot, the market sometimes gravitates toward that level as expiry approaches, driven by hedging flows and dealer positioning. With most calls stranded far above the market, those usual gravitational forces are muted. Dealers and large players have little reason to push BTC higher to defend call exposure, and the need for aggressive hedging via spot buying is reduced.
Put options, on the other hand, are already in a more comfortable position. Many protective puts bought earlier are either near the money or already profitable, which reduces the urgency for additional defensive positioning right at expiry.
ETH options expiry adds another layer
It is not just Bitcoin facing a major derivatives event. Ethereum options worth about $390 million are also expiring on the same day. For ETH, the put‑to‑call ratio is closer to balance, around 1.01, indicating a more even split between bullish and bearish positioning.
The max pain level for Ethereum is near $2,450, again somewhat higher than where prices have recently traded. While the ETH expiry is smaller in dollar terms than BTC’s, combined expiries can still contribute to broader volatility, especially if traders adjust their portfolios in both assets simultaneously.
Price action: BTC stuck below key levels
Bitcoin’s spot price recently slid to an intraday low near $60,286 before stabilizing in a relatively tight band between $63,000 and $65,000. The bounce has been modest, and BTC remains almost 50% below its 2025 peak above $126,000, illustrating the scale of the retracement.
The latest leg down has been driven by a combination of forced liquidations and a broader rotation out of risk assets. Many over‑leveraged positions have been flushed out, contributing to sharp intraday moves, thin order books in some venues, and spikes in realized volatility.
A critical technical development is BTC’s break below its 100‑day moving average, which had acted as a reliable support line throughout most of 2025. Repeated recovery attempts stalled near $83,000, leaving behind a clear lower high and signaling that sellers are increasingly active at elevated levels.
Deteriorating technical structure
From a chart perspective, the mood has deteriorated. After consolidating in a broad range, Bitcoin broke down, flipping the overall structure from sideways to bearish. The price slipped under the lower Bollinger Band during the sell‑off, typically a sign of disorderly selling and capitulation‑type moves rather than gradual profit‑taking.
Momentum indicators confirm the weakness. The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped toward the low 20s, levels that historically line up with oversold conditions, yet so far there are no convincing bullish divergences. Multiple sessions have closed near their daily lows, reflecting persistent selling into the close and limited interest from dip buyers.
A former support zone around $75,000 failed decisively, adding to the negative bias. With that floor gone, the market’s attention shifted to the round‑number area near $60,000, which now stands out as the next major psychological and technical battleground.
Why the $60,000 support matters
The $60,000 zone has already acted as short‑term support during recent bouts of weakness. Every time BTC has neared this level, buying interest has appeared, at least enough to produce temporary bounces. That has turned $60,000 into a line in the sand for both bulls and bears.
If BTC can close consistently above $60,000 after the options expiry, selling pressure may ease in the short term. That would open the door to relief rallies targeting overhead resistance between $70,000 and $75,000 — an area where prior support has now flipped into resistance.
However, without a sustained recovery above the 100‑day moving average near $83,000, any rebound is likely to be treated as corrective rather than the start of a new trend higher. Longer‑term bulls will be looking for a series of higher lows and a reclaiming of lost moving averages before declaring that the worst is over.
What happens if $60,000 breaks?
A decisive daily close below $60,000 — especially if accompanied by rising volume — would reinforce the existing downtrend. In that scenario, the market could begin to probe the mid‑$50,000 region, where some historical congestion and potential demand may emerge.
A drop into the $55,000–$57,000 band could trigger another round of liquidations from late‑cycle buyers who entered near the highs. That, in turn, might produce a capitulation‑style flush, which often precedes more durable bottoms but can be highly painful for short‑term participants.
Continued downside momentum would also weigh on sentiment across the crypto complex. Correlated assets — including large altcoins and high‑beta tokens — tend to amplify BTC moves, sometimes selling off more sharply when Bitcoin loses key supports.
How the options expiry could shape the next move
Given the current positioning, the expiry event itself may not act as a strong catalyst for an immediate reversal higher. With most calls stranded far above spot and many puts already in profit, positioning is not set up for a violent “short squeeze” or a forced run toward max pain.
Instead, the more likely effect is a clearing of stale positions. As options mature and drop off the board, some traders will rebalance spot and futures exposure, but with limited hedging pressure, those flows may simply allow the existing trend to play out.
If the market holds above $60,000 into and after the expiry, it would signal that buyers are willing to absorb supply even without the supportive dynamics of options hedging. If, on the other hand, BTC starts to slip below that threshold as contracts roll off, it would confirm that demand remains fragile and that the path of least resistance is still lower.
Macro and sentiment backdrop
Beyond the derivatives market, broader conditions are not especially supportive. Risk assets have faced growing headwinds from shifting expectations around interest rates, macroeconomic uncertainty, and regulatory overhang in several major jurisdictions. All of these factors have contributed to a “risk‑off” tone.
On the sentiment side, traders have transitioned from euphoria near the highs to a more cautious, defensive stance. Funding rates on perpetual futures have cooled, open interest has come down from peak levels, and social metrics show a decrease in speculative chatter around aggressive upside targets.
Paradoxically, this cooling of sentiment can be constructive over the longer term. Frothy leverage and overwhelming bullish consensus are often seen at or near major tops, while durable bottoms typically form when expectations have reset, and weaker hands have already been flushed out.
Scenarios for traders and investors
In the current environment, traders are watching three main scenarios:
1. $60,000 holds and a relief rally emerges
BTC defends the $60,000 area, options expiry passes without major disruption, and spot prices grind higher toward $70,000–$75,000. This would represent a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend unless BTC later reclaims the 100‑day moving average and begins forming higher highs.
2. $60,000 breaks and selling accelerates
A clean breakdown below $60,000 opens the way to the mid‑$50,000s. Liquidations pick up, volatility rises, and sentiment weakens further. Only once forced selling exhausts itself would conditions be ripe for a more meaningful bottoming process.
3. Sideways consolidation around current levels
BTC chops between roughly $60,000 and $68,000, allowing indicators to reset and volatility to compress. In this case, options expiry acts more as a reset of positioning than as a trigger for a directional move. The eventual breakout from such a range would likely define the next medium‑term trend.
Risk management in a fragile market
For market participants, the current backdrop highlights the importance of risk management over prediction. With technicals deteriorated and derivatives flows not strongly supportive, trying to call exact tops or bottoms is especially hazardous.
Short‑term traders may focus on clearly defined support and resistance levels, keeping tight stops around the $60,000 zone or around the $70,000–$75,000 resistance band, depending on bias. Volatility‑adjusted position sizing and careful leverage use become crucial when large expiries and thin order books can amplify price swings.
Longer‑term investors may pay more attention to structural factors — such as network activity, long‑term holder behavior, and macro trends — while accepting that deep pullbacks are a recurring feature of Bitcoin’s cycle, not an exception.
The bigger picture
The upcoming $2.1 billion BTC options expiry is an important near‑term event, but it is unlikely to single‑handedly determine Bitcoin’s long‑term trajectory. What it will do is help clean up positioning, clarify where real spot demand exists, and reveal how much conviction buyers still have in defending critical levels such as $60,000.
In the weeks that follow, price action around these supports and the ability — or failure — to reclaim key moving averages will likely matter more than any single expiry date. Whether BTC revisits the mid‑$50,000s or manages to build a base above $60,000, the current chapter appears to be one of consolidation and reset after an overheated rally, rather than the final word on the asset’s long‑term path.