Bitcoin’s price has begun to retreat from its recent highs, hovering near a critical support range between $91,000 and $97,000. This zone could serve as a potential floor where buyers may re-emerge, but current market signals suggest a pause rather than a reversal in momentum. One key indicator pointing to this cooling trend is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which shows that while profits remain unrealized, investor enthusiasm has tempered.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $102,292, marking a 1.3% decline over the past 24 hours. Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency has dropped roughly 7%, and it’s down about 16% on a monthly basis. These losses have placed Bitcoin approximately 18% below its all-time high of $126,080 recorded in early October.
Despite the pullback in price, trading activity has seen a notable uptick. Spot trading volume surged 14.8% over the last 24 hours to reach $69.5 billion. Futures markets also reflected increased participation, with total volume climbing 8% to $107.5 billion and open interest rising slightly by 1.4% to $69.6 billion. The rise in open interest, even as prices fall, suggests that traders are entering new positions rather than exiting, which can prolong the current market trend.
A recent analysis by an on-chain data analyst highlighted a divergence in the MVRV ratio that could hint at buyer fatigue. The MVRV has consistently found support between 1.7 and 1.8 during this cycle, acting as a “profit floor” for the market. This level aligns closely with the $91,800–$97,200 price range, reinforcing its importance. Historically, after a period of selling pressure, markets tend to stabilize when approaching this zone.
Adding technical weight to this area is the presence of an unfilled CME futures gap around $92,000. Market participants often monitor these gaps as they tend to be filled eventually, making them significant from a technical standpoint. The current bearish divergence in the MVRV ratio implies that investors are less willing to chase the price higher, although this doesn’t confirm the end of the bull cycle. A similar setup was observed in 2017 before Bitcoin entered its final parabolic phase.
Additional caution comes from a slowdown in institutional accumulation. In October, corporate entities acquired only 14,400 BTC, a steep decline from the 38,035 BTC bought in September. Moreover, the market capitalization of publicly traded Bitcoin-holding companies has decreased relative to their holdings, suggesting a more conservative stance among larger investors during this correction.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below its major short- and long-term moving averages, indicating persistent downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 37, reflecting a cooling market rather than an oversold condition. Similarly, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and other momentum indicators show early signs of stabilization, hinting at potential value-based buying interest at current levels.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and without a decisive move above $105,800, bullish momentum is unlikely to return in the short term. On the downside, a failure to hold the $97,000 level could open the door to a further drop toward the CME gap near $92,000.
Beyond the technicals and on-chain metrics, macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments continue to play a role in Bitcoin’s performance. Uncertainty in global markets, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions all contribute to investor sentiment and risk appetite in the crypto space.
Another critical factor to watch is the behavior of long-term holders. Historically, when these investors begin to distribute their holdings, it can signal a more profound shift in market structure. So far, there’s no clear evidence of a mass exodus, which suggests that the current decline may be part of a broader consolidation phase rather than a full-scale trend reversal.
Moreover, the halving event expected in 2025 continues to loom in the background. Historically, halvings have preceded major price rallies, as the reduced issuance of new BTC tightens supply. If the current correction persists into 2024, it could set the stage for renewed bullish momentum later, especially if macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
Investor psychology is also worth noting. After months of strong performance, a degree of complacency had crept into the market. The recent correction may serve as a healthy reset, flushing out overly leveraged positions and allowing for a more sustainable base to form.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price is experiencing a cooldown, the broader picture does not necessarily point to a bear market. Key support levels, on-chain metrics like MVRV, and increased trading activity suggest that the market is recalibrating. As long as the $91K–$97K range holds, there remains potential for a rebound. However, traders and investors should remain cautious and watch for confirmation signals before anticipating a renewed upward trend.