Bitcoin could be worth more than $1.4 million per coin by 2035 if a new long‑term valuation model proves accurate—and that’s only the conservative scenario, according to analysts at CF Benchmarks, a Kraken-owned index provider.
In their probability‑weighted forecast, analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk outline a “base case” in which Bitcoin climbs to around $1.42 million within the next decade. Measured against the cryptocurrency’s recent trading levels, that would represent a gain of more than 1,500%. Their more aggressive “bull case” points to a price that could exceed even double that figure if adoption and macro conditions line up in Bitcoin’s favor.
The model rests on a central assumption: that Bitcoin will increasingly compete with gold as a store of value, ultimately capturing roughly 33% of gold’s total market capitalization. If that happens, CF Benchmarks calculates that Bitcoin could deliver an expected annualized return of about 30.1% between now and 2035—a level of performance that would eclipse most traditional asset classes over the same period.
The report argues that institutional adoption is the key driver behind this potential revaluation. As more professional investors integrate Bitcoin into diversified portfolios, trading behavior is changing. With deeper liquidity and more sophisticated risk management, the analysts expect price swings to gradually moderate. “As institutional participation deepens, volatility is likely to continue compressing,” they write, framing this as a natural evolution from Bitcoin’s wild early years toward a more mature asset profile.
At the same time, Selby and Pilipczuk emphasize that Bitcoin’s core monetary characteristics—its fixed supply and predetermined issuance schedule—make it structurally different from fiat currencies that can be expanded at will. That scarcity, they argue, gives Bitcoin ongoing “exposure to monetary debasement,” meaning it stands to benefit when investors worry that governments are eroding the purchasing power of their currencies through money printing, deficit spending, or persistently loose monetary policy.
Because of this dynamic, the model suggests that Bitcoin’s price movements should continue to display relatively low correlation with most major asset classes, including equities and bonds, especially over longer time horizons. From a portfolio construction perspective, that’s crucial: an asset that both offers strong return potential and behaves differently from traditional holdings can materially improve risk‑adjusted performance. The analysts frame Bitcoin not just as a speculative bet, but as a diversifier that may enhance overall portfolio resilience.
A central pillar of the forecast is the comparison to gold. For decades, gold has been the go‑to hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and systemic risk. CF Benchmarks’ thesis is that Bitcoin is gradually taking over part of that role, especially among younger investors, technology‑savvy institutions, and regions with fragile financial systems. If Bitcoin succeeds in claiming one‑third of gold’s market value, the implied total market capitalization would justify the million‑dollar‑plus price targets per coin.
To reach that level of adoption, the report assumes continued progress on regulation, infrastructure, and access. The launch and rapid growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets, the expanding ecosystem of regulated custodians, and the acceptance of Bitcoin exposures by pension funds, asset managers, and corporate treasuries all feed into this narrative. Each new on‑ramp, the analysts suggest, lowers barriers for the next wave of capital.
The model also recognizes that Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are uniquely supportive of long‑term appreciation. With a hard cap of 21 million coins and regular “halving” events that cut the rate of new issuance roughly every four years, the available supply entering the market shrinks over time. If demand from institutions and high‑net‑worth individuals continues to grow while supply growth slows, basic supply‑and‑demand logic supports significantly higher price levels.
However, CF Benchmarks’ approach is probability‑weighted, meaning it explicitly incorporates uncertainty around adoption, regulation, and macroeconomic conditions. The $1.42 million projection is not presented as a guarantee, but as the central outcome in a range of possible futures. Bear‑case scenarios, where regulatory clampdowns, technological failures, or a loss of investor confidence derail Bitcoin’s narrative, would lead to much lower prices than the headline numbers.
The bull case, on the other hand, envisions a world where Bitcoin not only takes a third of gold’s market share but pushes beyond it, potentially becoming a primary global store of value in its own right. In that scenario, the price could more than double the base‑case target by 2035. That would imply trillions of dollars in additional capital flowing into the asset, driven by sovereign wealth funds, central banks experimenting with alternative reserves, and widespread corporate adoption.
For investors, the implications of the report are significant. A 30%+ expected annualized return, even with wide confidence bands, forces a comparison with equities, bonds, real estate, and commodities. Traditional asset allocation models that ignore or severely underweight Bitcoin may start to look outdated if such forecasts gain credibility among institutional allocators. Conversely, the extreme upside also comes with meaningful downside risk, requiring carefully calibrated position sizing and robust risk management.
The analysts also touch on volatility, which remains one of the main arguments against Bitcoin. While they expect volatility to compress over time, it is unlikely to vanish. Instead, the asset could evolve in a way similar to how emerging markets or nascent technology sectors behaved historically—initially chaotic and speculative, then gradually stabilizing as they became more integrated into the global financial system. Even at maturity, Bitcoin could stay more volatile than blue‑chip equities or investment‑grade bonds, which investors need to factor into their strategies.
Another dimension the model implicitly addresses is Bitcoin’s role in a changing macro environment. If the coming decade is marked by higher structural inflation, persistent fiscal deficits, and periodic crises of confidence in fiat currencies, the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” becomes more compelling. If, however, central banks manage a smooth disinflation, restore credibility, and maintain financial stability, the urgency to hold non‑sovereign stores of value may fade, limiting Bitcoin’s upside.
The forecast also assumes ongoing technological and security robustness. Bitcoin’s track record over more than a decade—running without central control, resisting attacks, and surviving multiple market cycles—underpins its perception as a reliable protocol. Any major technical failure, governance crisis, or successful attack on the network would dramatically undermine the model’s assumptions and could invalidate the long‑term targets.
Regulation remains another major swing factor. Clarity and consistency in rules around custody, taxation, and market structure encourage institutional capital to enter. On the other hand, unpredictable bans, onerous compliance burdens, or coordinated restrictions could slow or reverse adoption. The analysts appear to lean toward a scenario of gradual normalization and integration of Bitcoin into the regulated financial system rather than outright hostility.
From a strategic standpoint, the report suggests that investors who treat Bitcoin purely as a short‑term trading instrument may be missing the bigger picture. The multi‑year, probability‑based framework frames Bitcoin more as a macro asset than a speculative token—something to be evaluated alongside currencies, commodities, and long‑duration risk assets. In that context, time horizon becomes critical: the path to $1.4 million, if it materializes, is unlikely to be smooth, and interim drawdowns of 50% or more may still occur.
Finally, CF Benchmarks’ analysis adds to a growing body of valuation frameworks that move beyond simple narratives and attempt to quantify Bitcoin’s potential based on adoption curves, relative asset comparisons, and macro assumptions. Whether or not the $1.4 million figure proves accurate, the methodology reflects how the conversation around Bitcoin has evolved—from questions of survival and legitimacy to debates over how large a role it might eventually play in the global financial system.
In essence, the report presents Bitcoin as an emergent monetary asset on a trajectory toward partial parity with gold. If that trajectory continues, a price in the seven‑figure range by 2035 is presented as not only possible, but statistically central in the analysts’ model—with the caveat that both upside and downside outcomes remain extreme in a market that is still far from mature.