Cantor Fitzgerald has sharply reduced its 12‑month price target for Strategy (MSTR), even as it maintains a favorable view of the company’s long‑term prospects as a major Bitcoin proxy.
In its latest research note, the investment bank cut its target price for Strategy shares to 229 dollars, a steep drop of about 59% from the previous projection of 560 dollars. Despite this downgrade, analysts reiterated an “Overweight” rating, signaling that, in their view, the stock still offers upside from current levels for investors willing to tolerate volatility.
The firm’s reassessment comes after a brutal stretch for Strategy’s stock, which has fallen by more than half over the past six months. The company, known for its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, now holds roughly 58 billion dollars worth of BTC on its balance sheet, making it one of the largest corporate holders of the asset worldwide.
A key driver behind Cantor’s lower target is a significant markdown in the value assigned to Strategy’s treasury operations. Previously, analysts valued this segment at 364 dollars per share. In the new model, that figure has been slashed to 74 dollars per share, reflecting a more conservative stance on the firm’s ability to leverage its balance sheet and capital‑markets access as effectively as before.
Cantor’s team also revised down expectations for how much capital Strategy will raise over the coming year. Instead of a projected 22.5 billion dollars in new financing, they now forecast 7.8 billion dollars. This implies a slower pace of share issuance, convertible debt offerings, or other capital‑raising activities that Strategy has historically used to buy more Bitcoin and expand its exposure.
The decision to trim those forecasts likely stems from a mix of factors: shifting market conditions, investor appetite for high‑beta crypto‑linked equities, and the growing scrutiny of leverage around Bitcoin strategies. When equity markets turn more cautious, tapping capital markets at the scale Strategy previously enjoyed becomes more difficult or more expensive, which in turn reduces the company’s ability to expand its BTC stack as aggressively.
Even with these cutbacks, Cantor’s stance remains fundamentally optimistic over the longer horizon. By sticking with an Overweight rating, the bank is effectively saying that Strategy remains one of the clearest and most liquid vehicles for institutional and retail investors seeking leveraged exposure to Bitcoin’s price trajectory, despite the near‑term headwinds.
This dual message—slashing the target while staying bullish—highlights an important dynamic around Bitcoin‑centric equities. As Bitcoin itself has matured, its price cycles and drawdowns still tend to be sharp, and stocks that track or amplify its moves can be even more volatile. Analysts may adjust their models quickly in response to market swings or changing financing conditions, yet still believe in the core thesis that Bitcoin adoption and scarcity will drive value over many years.
For Strategy, that thesis is straightforward but risky: the company is effectively transforming itself from a traditional software and analytics firm into a hybrid operating company and Bitcoin holding vehicle. Its equity becomes a leveraged bet on BTC’s performance, layered with the complexities of corporate debt, equity issuance, and treasury management. When Bitcoin rallies, Strategy’s market capitalization can expand far faster than BTC’s price; when Bitcoin stalls or drops, the downside is magnified.
The sharp downward revision in the target price underlines how sensitive this model is to assumptions about future capital raises. If Strategy can tap markets at favorable terms, it can increase its Bitcoin holdings and, in bullish BTC phases, generate substantial equity value. If conditions tighten, the growth of its BTC treasury slows, limiting upside and making existing leverage look more precarious.
For investors, the updated Cantor call is a reminder that valuation for a Bitcoin‑heavy company is not simply a function of “how much BTC it owns.” Analysts must blend several components: the market value of Bitcoin holdings, the core operating business (where it still exists), the structure and cost of debt, and the likelihood of future dilution from new equity issues. By cutting the value of treasury operations and reducing fundraising expectations, Cantor is essentially dialing down both the leverage and the optionality embedded in the stock.
At the same time, the long‑term bullish label reflects a view that Bitcoin itself remains in a structural uptrend, driven by institutional adoption, halving cycles, regulatory clarity in key markets, and the narrative of digital scarcity. If those forces continue to play out, companies that have built a large BTC position early may still enjoy a substantial advantage, even if shorter‑term price targets need to be recalibrated in the face of volatility.
Risk, however, cuts both ways. Strategy’s heavy concentration in Bitcoin exposes shareholders to macro shocks, regulatory surprises, and changes in investor sentiment toward digital assets. A prolonged bear market in crypto, higher interest rates, or tighter regulations on corporate Bitcoin holdings could all pressure both its balance sheet and its stock price. Cantor’s more cautious assumptions on capital‑raising volumes implicitly acknowledge these uncertainties.
Another dimension is correlation. For investors who already own Bitcoin directly or through exchange‑traded products, adding Strategy shares may increase portfolio risk rather than diversify it, since the stock tends to move in the same direction as BTC, often with greater amplitude. Cantor’s Overweight rating suggests they still see room for differentiated performance versus spot Bitcoin, but the reduced target price shows that the margin for error has narrowed.
Ultimately, Cantor’s revised view captures the current phase of the Bitcoin equity cycle: enthusiasm tempered by realism. Strategy remains a flagship name for those seeking equity‑market exposure to BTC, yet the days of assuming virtually unlimited access to cheap capital appear to be over, at least for now. The market is forcing both companies and analysts to adopt more grounded expectations about growth, leverage, and the speed at which crypto‑linked business models can scale.
For prospective shareholders, the report underscores the need to distinguish between time horizons. Over the next 12 months, price targets can swing dramatically as analysts incorporate changes in Bitcoin’s price, market volatility, and financing conditions. Over a multi‑year period, however, investors must decide whether they share the underlying conviction that Bitcoin will appreciate significantly and that companies like Strategy are positioned to capture and amplify that upside.
Cantor’s move to cut its target by 59% while reiterating that it is still “long‑term bullish” on this Bitcoin giant encapsulates that tension. Near‑term caution, long‑term conviction: both can be true at the same time, and both now define the investment case for Strategy.