Cardano price stalls at crucial support as Midnight launch looms: is a recovery on the table?
Cardano’s native token ADA has been under consistent selling pressure in recent months, erasing much of its 2024 advance just as the ecosystem prepares for one of its most anticipated upgrades: the launch of the Midnight mainnet and the NIGHT token. The big question for traders and long‑term holders is whether this event can change the current bearish narrative—or simply become another “sell the news” moment.
ADA price: from yearly highs to multi‑month lows
ADA is currently trading around $0.4185, a steep correction from its year‑to‑date peak near $1.3202. That means the token has lost roughly 70% of its value from its 2024 high. It also remains far below its all‑time high near $3, reached during the previous bull cycle, and continues to underperform several major altcoins such as Ethereum and Chainlink over the same period.
On the higher‑timeframe chart, ADA is clearly locked in a technical bear market. Price has declined for several consecutive months, pushing the token back to levels last seen in November of the previous year. This prolonged downtrend reflects persistent risk‑off sentiment around Cardano, even as a major technological milestone approaches.
Midnight mainnet launch: why it matters for Cardano
Attention is now turning to the Midnight mainnet, which is scheduled to go live on Monday. Midnight has been in development for several years and is designed as a privacy‑focused sidechain or data‑protection network built to extend Cardano’s capabilities rather than replace them.
The idea behind Midnight is to bring more sophisticated, compliance‑friendly privacy features to the Cardano ecosystem, creating new use cases for enterprises, developers, and users who need confidentiality in smart contracts and data sharing. If successful, this could significantly deepen the utility of the Cardano network beyond standard payments and DeFi.
NIGHT token debut and exchange listings
Ahead of the mainnet launch, developers rolled out the NIGHT token, the first official Cardano Native Asset directly tied to the Midnight ecosystem. NIGHT is set to begin trading on Monday, with several well‑known centralized exchanges—including Bybit, Gate and OKX—confirming that they will support the listing.
This multi‑exchange debut is an important signal. Exchange support often boosts initial liquidity and can improve price discovery for a new asset. For Cardano, it also sends a message that large trading venues remain willing to onboard tokens from its ecosystem, even during a period of underperformance for ADA itself.
The role of the NIGHT airdrop
Another important component of the launch is the NIGHT airdrop. Holders who participated in earlier phases such as the Glacier airdrop and the scavenger mine period will be able to claim their tokens once trading goes live.
The airdrop cuts both ways from a market‑structure perspective. On one hand, recipients are likely to sell at least part of their allocation to lock in profit, potentially creating short‑term downward pressure on NIGHT and indirectly on market sentiment around Cardano. On the other hand, a portion of users may hold the token to gain exposure to Midnight’s future growth or to participate in its ecosystem, which could help to stabilize supply over time.
For ADA itself, the key question is whether excitement around free token distributions and a new network will translate into increased demand for the base chain, or whether speculation will be narrowly focused on NIGHT.
Hopes and concerns around Midnight’s impact
Cardano’s leadership, including founder Charles Hoskinson, is positioning Midnight as a catalyst to attract more developers, enterprise partners and capital to the ecosystem. The expectation is that a successful launch could increase the total value locked (TVL) on Cardano over the coming quarters by enabling new categories of applications focused on privacy, regulated finance, and secure data flows.
However, some analysts are more cautious. One of the core critiques is that Midnight may concentrate development activity on its own environment, rather than boosting direct usage of Cardano’s main chain. In that scenario, Midnight could evolve into a somewhat parallel ecosystem that does not necessarily translate into stronger demand for ADA.
Skeptics also highlight the mixed track record of newly launched layer‑1 and layer‑2 networks in the past few years. Several heavily hyped projects, including various Plasma‑based designs and more recent entrants like Monad and Keeta, have failed to sustain user interest or meaningful liquidity after their initial launch hype faded. That history fuels doubts about whether Midnight can break the pattern.
Technical picture: ADA at a make‑or‑break level
On the weekly timeframe, ADA’s chart underscores the ongoing weakness. From the 2024 high around $1.3202, price has slid to a recent low near $0.400, marking a sustained and orderly downtrend instead of a sharp capitulation spike.
Crucially, ADA has broken below a key horizontal support around $0.5113. This level had acted as a floor multiple times—particularly in January, April, and June of this year. Losing it suggests that buyers who previously defended that range have either stepped aside or exhausted their capital.
The token now trades along a long‑term ascending trendline that connects major swing lows from June 2023, August of last year, and December of this year. This trendline effectively forms the last significant structural support on the weekly chart before price enters a deeper bearish zone.
Momentum indicators are not encouraging. ADA has dropped beneath both the 50‑week and 100‑week Exponential Moving Averages, underscoring a firmly bearish longer‑term trend. Meanwhile, the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is below the zero line, indicating that downside momentum currently dominates.
Key levels to watch: downside and upside scenarios
If ADA decisively breaks below the long‑term ascending trendline, the technical outlook points to further losses. In that case, the next significant support to monitor is around $0.2760—the low from August of last year. That area could serve as a magnet for price if selling accelerates after the Midnight event or if broader crypto sentiment turns risk‑off.
On the upside, the first serious test for bulls is a sustained move back above the $0.5113 resistance. Reclaiming this former support would invalidate the most immediate bearish structure and suggest that buyers are regaining control, at least in the medium term. For a more durable reversal, ADA would also need to break and hold above its 50‑week EMA, which would hint at a trend transition rather than just a relief rally.
Could Midnight trigger an ADA rebound?
From a market psychology standpoint, major launches often create a “hope phase,” where traders position themselves for a potential positive surprise. If the Midnight mainnet rollout is smooth, exchange liquidity for NIGHT is robust, and user interest is visible from day one, ADA could benefit indirectly through renewed optimism about Cardano’s long‑term roadmap.
However, there is also a well‑known “sell the news” dynamic in crypto. Investors who accumulated ADA in anticipation of the event might choose to take profits as soon as the launch is complete, especially given the broader downtrend. In that scenario, a brief bounce around the launch date could be followed by continued weakness if no strong fundamental catalyst emerges to sustain the move.
For a genuine structural reversal in ADA price, markets will likely want to see hard data: growing developer activity, increasing TVL across Cardano and Midnight, and consistent user adoption instead of just speculative flows into the new token.
How macro and sector sentiment shape ADA’s path
Cardano’s price does not move in isolation. Broader crypto market conditions—Bitcoin’s trend, regulatory headlines, interest‑rate expectations, and risk appetite across global markets—will all influence whether ADA can stage a meaningful rebound.
If the overall market is in a risk‑on mode, with capital rotating into altcoins and DeFi, a successful Midnight launch could act as a lever that amplifies upside in ADA. Conversely, if macro conditions deteriorate or if capital consolidates into a few dominant chains, even strong execution on Midnight may not be enough to overpower the prevailing bearish bias.
This interplay means traders should evaluate ADA not just on its own technicals and news flow, but also in the context of sector‑wide liquidity and sentiment.
What long‑term investors should consider
For long‑term holders, the current environment is a test of conviction. On one hand, ADA’s deep drawdown from both its all‑time high and its 2024 peak offers a more attractive entry point than during euphoric phases. On the other hand, the broken support levels and underperformance versus competing ecosystems highlight execution and adoption risks.
Key questions for long‑term participants include:
– Will Midnight drive sustained, not temporary, growth in Cardano’s ecosystem metrics?
– Can Cardano differentiate itself in a crowded market of layer‑1s and privacy‑focused platforms?
– Is there visible developer momentum, with real applications launching and gaining users on Midnight and Cardano?
– Are tokenomics and incentive structures aligned to reward builders and long‑term stakers, rather than just short‑term speculators?
Answers to these questions will ultimately matter more than any single price level or short‑term spike.
Trading approaches around the launch
Short‑term traders may see the Midnight launch as an opportunity for volatility‑based strategies. Some may attempt to buy ADA near the ascending trendline with tight risk controls, betting on a relief bounce around the event. Others might wait to see whether price either reclaims $0.5113 or breaks decisively below the trendline before committing capital, using those levels as clear invalidation points.
Risk management remains crucial. With ADA below major moving averages and the PPO showing negative momentum, the dominant trend is still down. That means counter‑trend long positions should be sized conservatively and paired with clearly defined stop levels.
For those interested in NIGHT rather than ADA, the typical early‑token risks apply: thin order books, wide spreads, and heightened volatility, especially in the first days of trading and during the airdrop claim period.
Bottom line: a pivotal moment, not a guaranteed turnaround
Cardano is approaching a critical juncture. The Midnight mainnet and NIGHT token launch represent a genuine milestone for the project’s technological roadmap and may open new avenues for privacy‑preserving applications. At the same time, ADA’s price structure remains bearish, with key supports already broken and momentum indicators pointing lower.
A rebound is possible—especially if the launch delivers strong user engagement and reignites investor enthusiasm—but it is not guaranteed. The way price reacts to the ascending trendline support, the $0.5113 resistance zone, and the post‑launch flow of on‑chain data will offer the clearest clues as to whether this is the start of a new chapter for ADA or just another event in an ongoing downtrend.