Ethereum price weakness deepens as bearish structure eyes fresh yearly lows
Ethereum is sliding into a vulnerable phase, with its market structure increasingly skewed toward sellers and key support zones coming under sustained attack. After losing several important value levels, the asset is now trading in a pattern that significantly raises the odds of a breakdown to new lows for the year.
Key technical takeaways
– High‑timeframe support around $1,820 is being repeatedly tested and is showing signs of stress.
– If this level fails, the next prominent downside target sits near $1,740.
– The broader structure is dominated by lower highs and migrating value to the downside, both of which signal persistent selling pressure.
Shift from balance to directional decline
The turning point for Ethereum’s structure occurred when price fell below the value area high – the upper boundary of the range where most trading previously took place. Since then, each attempted bounce has stalled at progressively lower levels, creating a clear chain of lower highs. This pattern is a textbook signal of a continuing downtrend rather than a short-lived correction.
In organized markets, value migration often reveals where positioning is strongest. For Ethereum, value has been steadily drifting lower, meaning that traders and investors are now more comfortable transacting at reduced prices. Instead of reflecting a single sharp selloff, this behavior points to a gradual deterioration in demand and a shift in control toward sellers.
Breakdown through the point of control
The recent loss of the point of control (POC) – the price level within the trading range that attracted the most volume and was effectively seen as “fair value” – added weight to the bearish narrative. Typically, the POC acts as a magnet, pulling price back toward it during periods of consolidation. When price fails to hold above it and instead is rejected from this area, it often signals that the market is leaving a prior equilibrium and entering a more directional phase.
Following the POC rejection, Ethereum’s price rotated down into the value area low, pushing it dangerously close to a major, high‑timeframe support region near $1,820. This move underlines that buyers are no longer defending higher ground, and that sellers are dictating short‑term momentum.
$1,820: the critical decision zone
The support zone around $1,820 now serves as the primary battleground between bulls and bears. This area has previously held as a structural floor, preventing a deeper unwinding of price. Current price action shows Ethereum probing liquidity around this level, testing how much buying interest actually remains.
Support levels tend to deteriorate with each subsequent test, especially when those tests occur amid a broader pattern of bearish momentum, weak bounces, and failure to reclaim lost value zones. Ethereum’s repeated approach toward $1,820 with subdued bullish follow‑through suggests that this level may be losing its resilience.
If buyers cannot stage a strong, impulsive reaction from this area – characterized by expanding volume, a break of recent lower highs, and a reclaim of former value levels – the market risks transitioning into a phase of accelerated downside movement.
What a break below $1,820 would mean
A clean breakdown and acceptance below the $1,820 zone would be a strong technical signal that this support has failed. In that case, the market would likely begin targeting lower liquidity pockets, where fewer bids are stacked and price can move more quickly.
The next significant technical objective in that scenario lies around $1,740. This area aligns with previous demand and represents a deeper corrective target within the current bearish framework. A move into the $1,740 region would almost certainly establish a new low for the year and confirm the continuation of Ethereum’s high‑timeframe downtrend.
Such a move doesn’t necessarily equate to capitulation or panic. Instead, it can reflect a process of structural rebalancing, where the market seeks levels that attract renewed interest from long‑term participants. Historically, extended downtrends often conclude only after these lower support zones are retested and absorption of selling pressure is visible.
Bearish dominance while value remains depressed
From a pure market structure perspective, Ethereum remains in a bearish posture as long as it trades below prior value zones and continues to print lower highs. As long as the $1,820 support is under persistent pressure and no meaningful reclaim of previous resistance zones occurs, probabilities continue to favor further downside extension rather than an immediate recovery.
For the bearish thesis, confirmation would come through:
– A sustained break and acceptance below $1,820
– Follow‑through selling driving price toward $1,740
– Continuation of the lower‑highs sequence on daily and higher timeframes
If these conditions are met, the path of least resistance remains lower, with the market hunting for liquidity under prior lows.
What would change the outlook?
While the current structure is clearly biased to the downside, no trend is permanent. For Ethereum to transition out of this bearish phase, several conditions would need to occur:
1. Strong defense of $1,820 or a higher low formation above it
A sharp bounce from support, ideally forming a higher low on the daily chart, would signal that buyers are returning with conviction.
2. Reclaim of the POC and former value area high
Moving back above the POC and then stabilizing there would indicate that the market is ready to re‑accept higher prices as fair value.
3. Break of the lower‑highs pattern
A decisive move that invalidates the series of lower highs – for example, a daily close above the last major swing high – would flip the structure from trending down to potentially neutral or even bullish.
Until these structural shifts appear, any rally is more likely to be treated as a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend rather than the start of a sustained bull leg.
Additional signals traders are watching
Beyond volume profile and value levels, traders are monitoring a number of other tools to gauge whether Ethereum’s weakness is nearing exhaustion or only just beginning:
– Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD: deeply oversold readings can precede short‑term relief rallies, but in strong downtrends, oversold conditions can persist longer than expected.
– Volume behavior on breakdowns and bounces: strong volume on selloffs combined with weak volume on rallies typically confirms bearish control.
– Open interest and funding rates in derivatives markets: extremes in leverage or heavily one‑sided positioning can lead to short squeezes or long liquidations, temporarily disrupting the prevailing trend.
These tools do not override the primary structure but help traders time entries and exits within the dominant directional bias.
Risk management in a weakening market
In an environment where Ethereum is threatening to set new yearly lows, risk control becomes more important than directional conviction. Traders and investors often adapt by:
– Reducing position sizes or avoiding excessive leverage
– Using clearly defined invalidation levels (for example, a close below $1,820 or $1,740, depending on strategy)
– Favoring incremental scaling in and out of positions rather than all‑in entries
– Differentiating between short‑term trades and long‑term investment theses
For short‑term participants, the trend remains a key guide: “trend following” strategies typically favor remaining aligned with the dominant direction until a clear reversal pattern emerges. For longer‑term participants, lower prices may eventually present accumulation opportunities, but only if the broader macro and on‑chain picture supports that view.
Macro, sentiment, and on‑chain context
Price structure does not exist in a vacuum. Ethereum’s weakness is playing out against a backdrop of shifting macro conditions, regulatory headlines, and evolving sentiment in the wider crypto market. Risk‑off behavior in traditional markets, tighter liquidity conditions, or negative regulatory developments can all amplify downside moves in large‑cap crypto assets.
On‑chain data can also add nuance:
– Declines in active addresses and transaction volumes may reinforce the idea of waning network activity and reduced demand.
– Rising exchange reserves can hint at increased selling intent, while declining reserves often align with accumulation phases.
– Large holder behavior (whales, institutions, funds) can provide early clues – consistent distribution from these cohorts tends to pressure price, whereas accumulation near key supports can help build a base.
While none of these signals guarantees a reversal or continuation, alignment between technical structure and broader metrics often strengthens the prevailing narrative.
Scenario planning: what to expect next
In the near term, Ethereum’s price action is likely to revolve around two primary scenarios:
1. Bearish continuation
– $1,820 fails as support, with price accepting below this level.
– Momentum accelerates, and ETH targets the $1,740 area.
– New yearly lows print, confirming the existing downtrend and potentially setting the stage for further probing of even lower liquidity pockets if selling remains intense.
2. Stabilization and attempted recovery
– $1,820 holds, or price forms a higher low slightly above it.
– Buyers manage to reclaim lost value levels, starting with the POC.
– The sequence of lower highs is broken, shifting the structure from definitively bearish to more neutral, and opening the door to a more meaningful recovery attempt.
Until evidence of the second scenario appears on the chart, the first remains more probable based on current structure.
Bottom line
Ethereum’s price currently reflects a clear bearish bias, shaped by a series of lower highs, migrating value to the downside, and the loss of key levels such as the value area high and the point of control. The high‑timeframe support around $1,820 is the main line of defense; if it fails, the technical roadmap points toward $1,740 as the next major target and a likely new yearly low.
Any durable recovery will depend on Ethereum’s ability to defend or reclaim critical supports, break its pattern of lower highs, and restore acceptance at higher value zones. Until then, downside expansion remains the path favored by the prevailing market structure.