HBAR price climbs on Hedera–FedEx deal, but downside threats are far from over
The Hedera (HBAR) token has staged a notable recovery over the past few weeks, helped by a broad crypto market rebound and fresh excitement around a new partnership with logistics giant FedEx. Despite the bounce, several structural risks continue to hang over the project and could put renewed pressure on the token in the near term.
Over recent sessions, HBAR has rallied to around $0.1038, a strong move from this month’s low near $0.0735. Even so, the coin is still trading dramatically below its 2025 peak around $0.3045, underscoring how deep the previous downtrend was and how much ground would need to be recovered before a true trend reversal is confirmed.
FedEx joins Hedera’s governance council
One of the key short‑term catalysts behind the price jump was the announcement that FedEx has joined Hedera’s governing council. This council is a group of major multinational companies and institutions that share responsibility for running the network, guiding its strategic direction, and ensuring the stability and decentralization of its governance.
By stepping into this role, FedEx joins an already high‑profile roster of participants, including Tata Communications, LG, Mondelez, Google, Hitachi, and Deutsche Telekom. For Hedera, this is more than just another logo on a marketing slide: it strengthens the narrative that the network is becoming a serious infrastructure layer for real‑world, enterprise‑grade applications.
FedEx’s interest centers on the potential to build a trusted digital backbone for global logistics. The company is exploring how Hedera’s technology can be used to support the full lifecycle of shipments, from origin to final delivery, enabling smarter, more transparent supply chains with verifiable data shared between many stakeholders.
Vishal Talwar, speaking on the collaboration, highlighted a key challenge the partnership aims to address: as supply chains become more digital‑native, participants must share and verify sensitive data across multiple parties without increasing systemic risk or concentrating control in a single entity. Distributed ledger technology like Hedera’s is being evaluated as a way to align these competing needs.
Macro tailwinds support HBAR rebound
HBAR’s rally is not happening in isolation. The broader crypto market has been buoyed by shifting expectations about U.S. monetary policy. A recent consumer inflation report has boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve may accelerate or deepen interest rate cuts, a scenario that typically benefits risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s recovery from its latest pullback triggered renewed risk appetite across altcoins. HBAR, which had been heavily sold in prior months, benefited from this shift in sentiment. The FedEx partnership then added a project‑specific catalyst, helping HBAR outperform some of its peers in the short term.
However, traders should distinguish between macro‑driven relief rallies and sustainable, fundamentals‑driven uptrends. While looser monetary policy can provide temporary oxygen, long‑term price performance depends on demand for the network itself: real usage, fee generation, and developer traction.
ETF demand dries up, signaling investor fatigue
Against the bullish headlines, there are worrying signs on the institutional side. The Canary HBAR ETF, one of the key vehicles for regulated exposure to the token, has seen its demand effectively stall in recent months. According to the latest available data, the product has recorded no new inflows since February 9 of this year.
Year‑to‑date inflows stand at about $6 million, bringing the cumulative inflow total to roughly $90 million. While that might sound respectable, the plateau in new capital suggests that large, professional investors are no longer aggressively adding to their HBAR positions. For a project hoping to climb back toward previous highs, this cooling of ETF demand is a significant red flag.
ETF flows often act as a barometer of institutional conviction. When fresh money stops coming in, it can indicate that funds view the current risk–reward balance as unattractive or that they see better opportunities elsewhere in the crypto landscape. Unless inflows resume, this stagnation could limit the upside in any future rally and amplify downside risks when sentiment turns.
Stalled DeFi ecosystem and shrinking stablecoin base
Another problem for Hedera is that its on‑chain ecosystem appears to be losing momentum. Total value locked (TVL) in Hedera’s DeFi protocols has dropped to around $39 million. In a world where leading chains boast TVLs in the billions or even tens of billions, this figure underscores how small and fragile Hedera’s decentralized finance footprint currently is.
TVL is not a perfect metric, but it provides a rough gauge of how much capital is actively deployed on a network, earning yield, providing liquidity, or backing lending and trading activity. A low or falling TVL can be a sign that users and developers are migrating to other ecosystems, or that incentives are no longer sufficient to attract capital.
The situation is compounded by a sharp contraction in Hedera’s stablecoin market. The total market cap of stablecoins circulating on the network has slid to about $68 million. Stablecoins are the lifeblood of DeFi: they facilitate trading pairs, liquidity pools, lending, and payments. A small, shrinking stablecoin base limits what builders can realistically launch and how compelling the user experience can be for traders and investors.
Without a vibrant DeFi ecosystem and robust stablecoin activity, it becomes harder for Hedera to build the kind of sticky, organic demand for HBAR that’s needed to support long‑term price appreciation.
Technical picture: break‑and‑retest or bull trap?
From a technical analysis perspective, the daily chart shows that HBAR has enjoyed a solid bounce from its recent low near $0.07360, climbing to around $0.1037–$0.1038. This upward move has brought the token back to a region that previously acted as a notable support zone.
In particular, the $0.1037 area was an important level in October and December of last year. After breaking below it, the price has now returned to retest it from underneath—a classic “break‑and‑retest” setup. Often, when a former support turns into resistance, it signals that bears are still in control and that rallies into this zone may be sold into.
Price has also stalled near the 50‑day moving average, another widely watched technical indicator. When an asset remains below this moving average, the medium‑term trend is generally considered bearish. The inability to reclaim and hold above the 50‑day line suggests that HBAR might be in the middle of a relief rally within a broader downtrend, rather than the start of a new bull cycle.
If sellers reassert themselves at these resistance levels, a renewed move lower toward the year‑to‑date low around $0.073 is a plausible scenario. A decisive breakdown below that support could open the door to even deeper losses.
What would HBAR need for a sustainable trend reversal?
For HBAR to transition from a speculative bounce to a durable uptrend, several conditions would likely need to align:
1. Reacceleration of ETF and institutional inflows
A pickup in flows into products like the Canary HBAR ETF would be a strong signal that professional investors are regaining confidence. Consistent weekly inflows, rather than one‑off spikes, would matter most.
2. Revival of DeFi and on‑chain activity
Rising TVL, an expanding stablecoin market, and increasing transaction volumes from real users—not just incentives farming—would demonstrate that Hedera is becoming economically relevant as a settlement and execution layer.
3. Enterprise partnerships translating into usage
Deals with companies such as FedEx are promising, but the key question is whether they lead to significant, ongoing transaction volumes, tokenized assets, and recurring network fees. Headlines alone do little; measurable on‑chain impact matters.
4. Technical confirmation above key resistance
From a chart perspective, reclaiming and holding above the $0.10–$0.11 zone and the 50‑day moving average would strengthen the case for a trend shift. A sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe would be the next milestone.
5. Supportive macro conditions
Continued risk‑on sentiment in global markets, stable or falling interest rates, and resilience in majors like Bitcoin would provide a favorable backdrop for altcoins such as HBAR.
How the FedEx partnership could reshape Hedera’s narrative
If the collaboration with FedEx evolves beyond exploratory pilots, it could mark an important turning point for Hedera’s positioning in the enterprise blockchain space. Logistics and supply chain management are prime candidates for distributed ledger solutions: they involve many parties, complex documentation, regulatory oversight, and frequent disputes around provenance and authenticity.
Potential use cases include:
– End‑to‑end shipment tracking with immutable records of each handoff
– Digital documents and customs paperwork, time‑stamped and verifiable on‑chain
– Automated insurance claims triggered by sensor data, such as temperature breaches or delays
– Tokenization of trade finance instruments, enabling faster settlement and improved liquidity
If even a fraction of FedEx’s global volume were to interact with Hedera’s infrastructure, it could generate meaningful, recurring network activity. This, in turn, could increase demand for HBAR as the native token used for fees and potentially for staking or security mechanisms, depending on how applications are designed.
However, such transformations are typically slow. Large corporations move cautiously, regulatory constraints are complex, and integrating new infrastructure into legacy systems can take years. Investors betting on the partnership should be realistic about timelines and avoid assuming immediate revenue or token demand.
Comparing Hedera’s risks to other layer‑1 projects
The challenges Hedera faces—weak DeFi traction, modest stablecoin volumes, and subdued institutional interest—are not unique. Many alternative layer‑1 networks are struggling to differentiate themselves in a crowded field dominated by Ethereum, Bitcoin (and its scaling solutions), and a handful of high‑throughput chains.
Key competitive questions include:
– Can Hedera offer a clear advantage in speed, cost, or security for specific enterprise use cases?
– Will its governance council model be seen as a strength (stability and legitimacy) or a weakness (perceived centralization)?
– Can it attract a critical mass of developers willing to build and maintain applications over the long term?
If Hedera fails to answer these questions convincingly, it risks being overshadowed by platforms that already have deeper liquidity, more mature ecosystems, and stronger network effects.
Risk management for HBAR holders and traders
Given the mix of positive catalysts and structural vulnerabilities, participants in the HBAR market may want to approach with caution:
– Short‑term traders might focus on technical levels such as $0.10–$0.11 resistance and the year‑to‑date low near $0.073. Clear breakouts or breakdowns from these zones could define the next directional move.
– Long‑term holders should monitor on‑chain metrics (TVL, stablecoin supply, transaction counts) and real‑world adoption news closely, rather than trading solely on price action.
– Portfolio allocators could consider position sizing and diversification, recognizing that HBAR remains a high‑beta, high‑risk asset dependent on both macro conditions and project‑specific execution.
No single partnership or market rally is enough to fully de‑risk an altcoin investment. The key is whether the underlying network can transform temporary attention into durable utility and sustained demand.
Outlook: cautious optimism, but proof still required
HBAR’s recent climb on the back of the Hedera–FedEx partnership and improving macro sentiment shows that the market is still willing to reward compelling narratives. Yet the underlying data—stalled ETF inflows, weak DeFi activity, and a shrinking stablecoin footprint—suggests that the project has significant work ahead to justify a sustained re‑rating.
As long as the price remains capped beneath major resistance levels and ecosystem metrics do not show a clear recovery, the risk that HBAR resumes its broader downtrend remains elevated. For now, the token sits at a crossroads: it has enough momentum to keep optimists engaged, but not enough fundamental strength to silence the skeptics.
Whether this latest rebound becomes the foundation for a long‑term turnaround or fades into another lower high will depend on Hedera’s ability to convert partnerships like FedEx into real usage, attract capital back into its ecosystem, and convince both retail and institutional investors that it deserves a place among the leading blockchain platforms.