Myriad Moves: Bitcoin’s Fading Santa Rally – And What Predictors Are Watching Now
Crypto markets have slogged through the holiday period with little of the usual December excitement. Instead of a euphoric year-end surge, traders are staring at a market that feels tired, choppy, and increasingly skeptical that a classic “Santa rally” will show up this time around.
On prediction platform Myriad, that skepticism is now a tradeable opinion. Users are staking real money on whether the final weeks of 2025 will deliver a late-stage breakout that could propel Bitcoin back toward the $100,000 mark and drag Ethereum closer to $4,000—or whether the season will end with a whimper instead of a bang.
Santa rally odds: from hope to hesitation
The idea of a Santa rally has long been part of market lore: assets often drift higher into the end of the year as liquidity, sentiment, and positioning align. In crypto, previous bull cycles have trained traders to expect fireworks in December. This year, though, the mood is different.
Bitcoin has spent much of the period grinding sideways near the mid–$80,000 range, with spot prices around $85,000 fluctuating in narrow bands. Ethereum has hovered around the $2,800–$3,000 region, periodically testing $3,000 but failing to mount a convincing breakout. Altcoins have mirrored this lethargy, with many majors like Solana, Avalanche, and others oscillating without clear direction.
On Myriad, this backdrop is reflected directly in the odds. The market question is simple but loaded: will we see a year-end move strong enough to push BTC back toward six figures and ETH toward the $4,000 level? Early in the quarter, such a scenario felt plausible; now, many predictors are treating it as a low-probability tail event rather than a base case.
Why the Santa rally narrative is cracking
Several factors are undermining belief in a festive surge:
– Exhausted momentum: After a multi-year grind higher, Bitcoin’s trend remains intact but overextended. Each attempt to break higher has quickly met selling pressure from profit-takers and leveraged traders resetting positions.
– Macro uncertainty: Interest rate expectations, inflation readings, and geopolitical risks continue to hang over risk assets, muting the “all clear” signal that typically fuels speculative blow-off tops.
– Derivatives overhang: Perpetual futures and options markets remain heavily used, with large open interest acting as both fuel and friction. When positioning is crowded, rallies are often sold quickly, preventing sustained uptrends.
– Psychological fatigue: Retail enthusiasm is much lower than at prior cycle peaks. The “everyone’s getting rich on crypto” narrative has been replaced with a more cautious, almost clinical approach from many participants.
In that environment, betting on a sharp move to $100,000 BTC and $4,000 ETH in the final days of the year feels, to many, like wishful thinking. Myriad’s prediction flows appear to capture that shift from hopeful to defensive positioning.
What “back toward $100,000” really implies
The phrasing of the Santa rally market matters. Predictors are not just voting on a vague “up or down” outcome, but on a specific path: Bitcoin moving significantly closer to the psychologically iconic $100,000 level and Ethereum reclaiming its higher trading band near $4,000.
This implies more than a gentle drift. To hit those thresholds, traders would need:
– A sharp injection of new demand, likely from institutional allocators, large funds, or a new wave of retail buyers
– A decisive break through current resistance zones, accompanied by rising volume and positive funding rates that don’t overheat too quickly
– A supportive macro narrative—such as clear signals on rate cuts or a risk-on rotation in broader markets
Prediction market odds slipping here don’t merely reflect price levels today; they reflect a belief that the catalysts required for that kind of explosive move are either delayed or absent.
Ethereum’s quieter role in the Santa rally debate
Bitcoin dominates the psychological discussion around six-figure targets, but Ethereum’s path to $4,000 is just as revealing. ETH has trailed BTC in relative performance during parts of this cycle, and many traders are wrestling with whether it can play catch-up in a compressed time window.
On Myriad, some predictors view Ethereum’s upside as more constrained in the near term, citing:
– Competition from newer smart contract platforms and scaling solutions
– A market structure where ETH is heavily used as collateral and in DeFi, sometimes capping its speculative blow-off potential
– Ongoing rotation into Bitcoin as a perceived “safer” crypto macro bet
If Bitcoin were to stage a late surge, Ethereum could certainly follow—but the shrinking odds on both legs of the Santa rally reflect a broader skepticism about any dramatic, synchronized melt-up before the calendar flips.
Beyond prices: the Keonne Rodriguez pardon market
The most-watched markets on Myriad this week are not limited to price charts. One of the platform’s headline questions asks whether President Donald Trump will grant a pardon to Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez by February 2026.
For crypto observers, this market is significant on multiple fronts:
– Regulation vs. privacy: Samourai Wallet’s work sits at the intersection of privacy tools and financial oversight. A pardon would send a clear political signal about how the administration views privacy-enhancing technology in the context of crypto.
– Precedent-setting: Legal outcomes around wallet developers and protocol builders shape how engineers and entrepreneurs perceive their own risk. A high-profile pardon could cool fears or, conversely, ignite political backlash.
– Crypto as a political wedge: The very existence of a liquid market on this question underlines how deeply digital assets have been pulled into partisan and presidential decision-making.
Predictors weighing in on this market are implicitly making a call on how aggressively the Trump administration wants to realign itself with the crypto sector—and how much political capital it’s willing to spend on a controversial case.
Entertainment meets prediction: Will Steve Harrington die?
Another standout market on Myriad drifts far from macro and regulation and dives straight into pop culture: will Steve Harrington die in the fifth season of “Stranger Things”?
This kind of market illustrates the broad scope of modern prediction platforms:
– Narrative expertise as an edge: Fans who analyze scripts, prior seasons, character arcs, and casting interviews see an opportunity to monetize their storytelling instincts.
– Data beyond finance: While crypto prices are numeric and chart-driven, TV outcomes depend on writers’ rooms, audience expectations, and studio strategy—an entirely different analytical toolkit.
– Cross-pollination of users: Traders who came for Bitcoin odds may find themselves dabbling in entertainment predictions, while hardcore TV fans might arrive for Steve Harrington and stay to explore crypto-linked markets.
The Steve Harrington market also shows how prediction platforms are transforming casual speculation (“they’d never kill him!”) into structured, priced probabilities that evolve as new information appears.
Why prediction markets matter to crypto traders
For seasoned crypto participants, Myriad is more than a curiosity. It functions as a sentiment barometer and a way to express views that traditional exchanges can’t easily capture. Instead of just going long or short BTC, users can:
– Bet on *scenarios* (e.g., specific price bands by specific dates) rather than simple direction
– Combine views on regulation, politics, and entertainment with financial theses
– Hedge portfolio exposure by taking positions in outcome-driven markets correlated with crypto risk
When the odds of a Santa rally crater, it sends a clear message: traders who are willing to put money behind their views increasingly believe that the market’s biggest moves have already happened—or are being pushed into next year.
Reading the tea leaves: what cratering Santa odds say about 2026
Even though the year-end rally looks less likely, that doesn’t automatically translate into a bearish long-term outlook. Lower odds of a December explosion can instead mean:
– Delayed upside: Traders expect consolidation or mild correction now, followed by renewed strength once macro uncertainty clears.
– Healthier market structure: A slower grind up with periodic pullbacks may be more sustainable than a parabolic blow-off that invites a brutal crash.
– Opportunity for disciplined buyers: If aggressive speculators are discouraged by the lack of instant gratification, longer-term investors may find better entry points without competing with mania-driven flows.
Prediction markets like those on Myriad can thus be seen as a snapshot of timing expectations, not a binary verdict on whether Bitcoin or Ethereum will ever reach those long-term targets.
How traders can use these signals without overreacting
For individuals navigating the current environment, the message from Myriad’s leading markets can be distilled into a few practical takeaways:
– Don’t anchor on calendar effects: The “Santa rally” is a catchy narrative, but markets do not owe anyone gains just because it’s December.
– Watch probabilities, not just prices: When odds of a dramatic move collapse, it can be a cue to temper short-term expectations, adjust leverage, or rethink time horizons.
– Consider non-price catalysts: Outcomes around regulation, high-profile legal cases, and cultural trends all feed back into how crypto is perceived and adopted.
– Use skepticism constructively: The erosion of euphoric beliefs can create space for more grounded, research-based decision-making.
A quieter holiday, but not a dead market
Taken together, Myriad’s top markets paint a portrait of a crypto world in transition. Hopes for a spectacular year-end surge are fading, replaced by a more sober assessment of what Bitcoin and Ethereum can realistically achieve in a compressed timeframe. At the same time, the industry’s political, legal, and cultural storylines are becoming just as tradeable as price charts.
Whether or not Santa delivers one last surprise rally, the proliferation of these markets shows that the conversation around crypto is no longer confined to candlesticks and market caps. It now spans presidential pardons, streaming-era storytelling, and the broader question of how digital assets fit into everything from governance to entertainment.
In that sense, even a disappointing December can still be revealing. The odds on Myriad may say the Santa rally is unlikely—but they also show a maturing ecosystem where traders can express far more nuanced views than “number go up,” and where the most interesting moves might arrive long after the Christmas lights come down.