Pi Network price stagnates: is a sharp move coming next?
Pi Network’s native token has spent the past month moving almost perfectly sideways, leaving traders wondering whether the next big swing will be a rebound or a deeper crash. The current technical setup, weak demand, and steadily increasing supply all point to rising downside risk, even as a few large holders continue to accumulate.
For now, Pi Coin (PI) is pinned near $0.2050, a price zone that previously marked the November low and has effectively become a battleground between bulls and bears. From its 2025 peak, PI has already shed more than 90%, wiping out the majority of speculative gains amassed during previous rallies. This type of prolonged drawdown is common among smaller, still-developing crypto projects, but it also makes each subsequent support level more psychologically important.
Trading activity has thinned dramatically alongside the price drift. Over the last 24 hours, Pi’s volume has hovered around $7 million, a negligible figure in the context of a broader crypto market that turned over about $60 billion during the same period. For a token with a market capitalization above $1.7 billion, this level of liquidity is strikingly low. Thin volume often means that even moderate sell orders can push the price down quickly, while genuine buying pressure is scarce.
At the same time, token supply continues to expand. Pi Network is in an active unlocking phase, with over 100 million tokens scheduled to be released this month alone and around 1.2 billion more expected to hit the market over the next 12 months. This steady stream of new coins adds persistent selling pressure, especially if there is no corresponding increase in real user demand, utility, or long-term institutional interest.
On-chain concentration data paints a mixed picture. The number of large holders–so‑called Pi whales–has declined from 23 earlier in the year to just 20 now. In this context, a whale is any address holding more than $10 million worth of PI. A reduction in whales can indicate distribution from large players to smaller holders, or it can simply mean some big investors have exited their positions. Yet one major exception stands out: the largest whale has been quietly adding to its holdings and now controls over 393 million tokens, worth more than $80 million at current prices. That accumulation can be interpreted as a vote of confidence, but it also increases concentration risk if that address eventually decides to sell.
The broader narrative around Pi Network has been muted. The project’s team has released very few announcements capable of materially moving the market this year. The most notable update came on January 10, when developers introduced a new library intended to simplify integrating Pi payments into applications built within the Pi ecosystem. While this is a step toward real-world utility, the news has not translated into a surge in speculation or adoption strong enough to shift price action meaningfully.
On the daily chart, PI’s price action underscores the sense of paralysis. The coin has traded within a narrow horizontal band for several weeks, and the Average True Range (ATR) indicator has steadily declined, signaling a marked drop in volatility. Low volatility phases often precede large moves, but they can also drag on longer than traders expect, trapping overly aggressive short-term strategies.
From a trend perspective, the token remains under pressure. PI is still trading below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a widely watched gauge of short- to medium-term momentum. It also sits below the Supertrend indicator, which currently flashes a bearish bias. Until the price can reclaim and hold above these dynamic resistance levels, any rally attempts are likely to be treated as opportunities to sell into strength by cautious traders.
More concerning is the structure that has emerged on the chart. PI has formed a rising wedge pattern, characterized by two upward-sloping but converging trendlines. In classical technical analysis, rising wedges that appear after a downtrend are typically viewed as bearish continuation patterns, often signaling that an upside grind is likely to break down sharply once buyers lose steam. Alongside the wedge, the price also appears to be tracing out a bearish pennant, another pattern that frequently resolves with a downward continuation after a period of consolidation following a steep drop.
Taken together, these patterns build a scenario in which a significant bearish breakdown becomes increasingly plausible. If sellers regain control, the first obvious target is the all-time low at $0.1534, which was briefly touched in October of last year. A decisive move toward or below that level would not only hurt sentiment but could also flush out late entrants and leveraged traders, potentially setting the stage for a more durable base–but only after substantial pain.
There is, however, a clear invalidation point for this pessimistic outlook. A sustained breakout above the $0.2250 resistance zone would weaken the bearish thesis. Such a move would mean PI has punched through the upper boundary of its recent consolidation range and would likely drag the 50-day EMA and Supertrend closer to a bullish flip. For this to be convincing, price would need to hold above $0.2250 on strong volume rather than briefly spiking before fading back into the range.
From a fundamental standpoint, the tug‑of‑war between rebound and crash hinges largely on two questions: can Pi Network demonstrate growing real-world usage, and can it manage its token economics in a way that doesn’t drown the market in new supply? Frequent unlocks in a low-demand environment usually pressure prices lower, because early holders and speculators often use each unlock as an opportunity to cash out. Conversely, if the project can show a clear path to utility–for example, through active applications, payment use cases, or integration in digital services–buyers may eventually be willing to absorb increased supply.
Investor psychology is another critical factor. After a 90% decline from the peak, sentiment around PI is heavily skewed toward caution and fatigue. Many small holders may be nursing losses and are more likely to sell into minor rallies just to recover a portion of their capital. This “overhang” of potential sellers suppresses upside momentum. At the same time, contrarian traders sometimes view such depressed sentiment as a breeding ground for sharp relief rallies, particularly if a surprise positive catalyst emerges or if the broader crypto market enters a strong risk‑on phase.
Risk management is essential for anyone considering an entry at current levels. For bearish traders, the combination of a rising wedge, bearish pennant, and persistent supply expansion presents an attractive setup, but it is vulnerable to false breakouts and sudden short squeezes in a low-liquidity environment. For would‑be bulls, the more prudent approach is to wait for clear signs of a trend reversal: a break above $0.2250 with elevated volume, a recovery above the 50‑day EMA, and ideally some fresh, substantive project news that goes beyond incremental developer tools.
Macro conditions in the crypto market also cannot be ignored. When overall market sentiment is positive and capital is flowing into riskier digital assets, even weaker projects sometimes enjoy speculative bids that lift prices temporarily. Conversely, in risk‑off periods or during regulatory uncertainty, assets like PI that lack strong adoption or institutional backing often underperform. Traders should therefore view Pi’s chart not in isolation but in the context of what is happening with larger assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as broader market liquidity trends.
In the near term, the price structure suggests that a large move is brewing after weeks of compression. The direction of that move will likely be determined by whether buyers can step in aggressively around current levels and flip key resistance, or whether continued apathy allows sellers to push the market back toward its historical lows. For now, the balance of technical evidence tilts toward further downside, but the market’s final verdict will depend on how quickly Pi Network can translate its ambitious vision into tangible usage and how the community of holders reacts as new supply continues to unlock.
In summary, Pi Network’s price currently sits at a fragile equilibrium: flat, low‑volume trading, a heavy unlock schedule, and bearish patterns argue for caution, while isolated whale accumulation and the potential for new ecosystem developments keep a rebound scenario alive. Until the token demonstrates stronger demand or breaks key resistance levels, the risk of a deeper pullback remains higher than the probability of a sustained, organic recovery.