Will XRP price hold above $1.10 after the CLARITY Act delay?
XRP is hovering in a fragile equilibrium zone, trading around $1.13 on July 7, down roughly 1.7% over the previous 24 hours. Intraday, the token fluctuated between $1.11 and $1.16, with trading volumes near $1.73 billion, underscoring active but cautious participation from traders.
The recovery off the late‑June lows near $1.00 is still valid, yet it has not evolved into a decisive bullish breakout. Buyers managed to drive XRP back into the $1.14-$1.18 resistance band, but the market failed to sustain prices in the upper portion of that range. As a result, XRP is now trading at a key inflection point where both bulls and bears have clear levels to defend.
From a short‑term technical perspective, $1.14 has emerged as a local line in the sand for the bulls. A confirmed daily close above this level would signal that buyers are regaining control of momentum. A stronger bullish confirmation would come if XRP can break and hold above the $1.18-$1.20 corridor, which would reopen higher resistance zones and potentially shift sentiment from “rebound” to “trend reversal.”
On the downside, the $1.10 level has become the critical support to watch. Losing this area would weaken the current recovery structure and raise the probability of a pullback toward $1.06, which an increasing number of traders view as the next downside retest zone. Below that, the late‑June region around $1.00 remains a strategic level that could come back into focus if selling pressure accelerates.
This delicate balance is playing out against a backdrop of consistent demand for XRP‑linked investment vehicles. Spot XRP exchange‑traded funds have now posted nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, adding roughly $17.19 million most recently despite a challenging regulatory and macro environment. These inflows indicate that a segment of the market, particularly more risk‑controlled investors, continues to accumulate exposure.
However, ETF demand alone has not been sufficient to reverse the broader downtrend that followed the June breakdown. While these products offer regulated access to XRP for a wider pool of investors, they do not in themselves resolve the lingering legal uncertainty surrounding XRP’s status under U.S. law. That unresolved question remains the main overhang limiting more aggressive institutional positioning.
For many market participants, the CLARITY Act is the central policy event that could change that landscape. The bill, initially eyed for a July 4 milestone, has now slipped to an August 7 deadline before the U.S. Senate’s summer recess. The delay effectively removed a short‑term regulatory catalyst that some traders had been hoping would spark a fresh wave of speculative and institutional demand for XRP and other digital assets.
Procedurally, the legislation has already passed the House of Representatives and cleared the Senate Banking Committee. It now sits on the Senate calendar, but staff need to reconcile versions coming out of the Banking and Agriculture committees before it can face a full Senate vote. Until that process is complete and a final text is agreed upon, markets remain in a holding pattern with respect to regulatory clarity.
Forecasts around the potential impact of CLARITY are significant. One major global bank has suggested that XRP‑focused ETFs could attract between $4 billion and $8 billion in inflows during their first year if the bill passes and provides firm legal status for the asset. That scenario assumes that clearer rules would unlock demand from large institutions currently constrained by compliance and risk mandates.
On the charts, the XRP/USDT daily timeframe reflects this push‑and‑pull narrative. Price has bounced convincingly from the late‑June lows, but the overall structure still appears fragile after June’s breakdown. XRP is currently trading above the middle Bollinger Band around $1.10, which is helping to keep the short‑term rebound technically intact and reinforces the importance of that level for bulls.
The upper Bollinger Band near $1.18 aligns almost perfectly with the resistance zone traders are watching as the trigger for a more decisive move higher. Until XRP closes above this band on a sustained basis, the advance looks more like a relief rally within a broader weak pattern than a confirmed trend reversal. Conversely, the lower Bollinger Band, close to $1.01, marks the deeper downside risk zone if sellers return with force.
Momentum indicators paint a nuanced picture. The Stochastic RSI is elevated, with values sat around the high‑80s and mid‑90s, illustrating strong short‑term upside momentum but also signaling that XRP is nearing overbought territory. Importantly, the faster Stochastic line has already dipped below the slower line, an early sign that bullish momentum may be losing intensity even as price hovers near resistance.
On lower timeframes, some analysts highlight the importance of the $1.10 zone even more explicitly. One prominent market watcher noted that XRP has slipped below the 21‑period exponential moving average on the four‑hour chart, which they use as a gauge of momentum. In their view, the overall structure remains “alive” as long as $1.10 holds, while a break down toward $1.06 would warrant heightened caution and could signal that the rebound is fading.
Other analysts adopt a more optimistic stance on the higher‑timeframe structure. On the weekly chart, some see the current movement as the early phase of a new impulsive wave higher, arguing that XRP can initiate a substantial upside move even without an immediate regulatory breakthrough. Yet, even the more bullish projections implicitly rely on the market first conquering the current resistance band near $1.18-$1.20 before ambitious long‑term targets can be considered credible.
The divergence between spot and derivatives data underscores how divided the market remains. On‑chain and exchange analytics show that estimated spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) for XRP across centralized platforms has climbed from roughly minus $42 million on May 12 to about plus $406 million by July 7. That swing indicates that net spot buying has significantly increased, with buyers absorbing more of the available supply over the past two months.
In stark contrast, the perpetual futures market has leaned heavily in the other direction. Estimated CVD for XRP perpetual contracts on a major derivatives venue has deteriorated from around minus $48 million to approximately minus $783 million over the same period. This points to persistent sell‑side pressure from leveraged traders, who are either hedging spot exposure or speculating on downside continuation.
Open interest provides further context. Total open interest in XRP derivatives has slid from about $255 million on May 22 to roughly $203 million by July 7. The drop suggests that leveraged traders are gradually stepping back, reducing exposure as volatility and directional conviction wane. At the same time, the rise in spot demand signals that participants with a longer‑term horizon are more willing to accumulate without aggressive leverage.
Spot metrics on one of the largest exchanges also highlight a gradual shift. Estimated spot CVD there has improved from roughly minus $212 million on June 25 to around minus $173 million by July 7. While still negative, the change indicates that selling pressure is easing, even if it has not yet flipped into outright net spot buying on that particular venue. This mix of improving, but not fully bullish, data mirrors the broader “wait‑and‑see” attitude in the market.
So, can XRP realistically hold above $1.10 while the CLARITY Act remains delayed?
In the short term, the answer hinges largely on whether spot demand can continue to counterbalance the cautious stance of perpetual traders. As long as ETF inflows stay positive and broader spot buying absorbs selling from derivatives, the $1.10 support level has a reasonable chance of holding. Technically, defending the middle Bollinger Band and maintaining closes above that mark would keep the current rebound structure intact and preserve the possibility of a renewed attempt at $1.14-$1.18.
However, the absence of a near‑term policy catalyst introduces a notable risk: if macro sentiment in crypto weakens or broader markets face a risk‑off episode before August, derivatives traders could push prices below $1.10, forcing spot investors to reassess their positions. In such a scenario, a retest of $1.06 or even the $1.00 area cannot be ruled out, especially if momentum indicators fully roll over from overbought conditions.
At the same time, the CLARITY delay does not necessarily equate to a negative outcome for XRP; it mainly shifts the timeline. For medium‑ to long‑term participants, the key question is whether regulatory clarity eventually arrives in a form that definitively classifies XRP in a way that encourages institutional participation. If that happens, even later in the year, the structural impact could outweigh the short‑term volatility around $1.10.
For traders, the practical takeaway is that XRP is currently trading inside a tightly defined technical box: support around $1.10-$1.06, resistance near $1.14-$1.18, and a broader pivot at $1.00. Until the price either breaks above $1.18-$1.20 or loses $1.06 decisively, the market is likely to remain range‑bound, driven by short‑term flows and headlines rather than a strong directional trend.
Investors with a longer horizon will be watching three main factors: the evolution of ETF inflows, whether spot CVD continues to strengthen against derivatives selling, and any concrete movement on the CLARITY Act as August approaches. If ETF demand remains steady and regulatory news turns favorable, the current consolidation above $1.10 could eventually be remembered as a base‑building phase rather than the start of a deeper correction.
Until then, XRP’s ability to hold $1.10 is less about a single news event and more about a subtle tug‑of‑war between cautious leverage, growing spot interest, and a regulatory clock that is still ticking toward its next critical deadline.