XRP price prediction: Is a “Phase 4” breakout rally really about to start?
XRP is attempting to steady itself after a sharp pullback, and several key technical indicators are starting to hint that the selling pressure may be fading. The token is trading in the $1.43-$1.46 range after a turbulent February, with price compressing just below important resistance zones. One prominent trader argues that this pause is not the end of the move, but the prelude to what he terms a “Phase 4” expansion rally.
According to his long-term chart, XRP is approaching a major trend reversal signal. He expects the current candle structure to flip from red to green on his setup and anticipates a “golden cross” on a proprietary sub‑indicator, which in his view would mark the formal beginning of Phase 4 – the stage where the “real rally” could unfold.
The four-phase structure behind the XRP thesis
The trader’s framework divides XRP’s macro price history into four distinct phases:
– Phase 1 – Accumulation and breakout:
Historically, this phase has been characterized by sideways trading, gradual accumulation by long-term holders, and an eventual breakout from a broad base range.
– Phase 2 – Corrective consolidation:
After the initial surge, XRP has tended to retrace a portion of its gains, forming a corrective structure where the market digests the prior move and weaker hands exit.
– Phase 3 – Prolonged compression:
This stage is marked by shrinking volatility and converging trendlines, with price trapped inside a narrowing range, often forming symmetrical triangles or similar patterns.
– Phase 4 – Expansion phase:
The final phase in the model is a powerful expansion move, where price escapes the compression zone and targets first the previous all‑time highs and potentially new extreme extensions.
In the current cycle, XRP recently broke out above a multi‑year symmetrical triangle, a pattern that had acted as a lid on price for an extended period. After this breakout, the token pulled back toward the upper boundary of the triangle – a classic retest of former resistance, which now acts as support. If buyers defend this zone, it often precedes a renewed leg higher.
The trader’s “Phase 4” zone envisions an upside extension in two main stages. The first target (TP1) is a revisit of XRP’s previous all‑time high, while the second (TP2) is a highly ambitious Fibonacci projection around $21.50, derived from the 6.618 extension level. While such an extreme target is mathematically grounded in this model, it is still highly speculative and assumes a full‑blown expansionary cycle across the broader crypto market.
Daily chart: momentum is stabilizing, but not yet strongly bullish
Zooming into the daily timeframe, XRP’s price action has started to stabilize after a pronounced selloff earlier this year. The 14‑day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 44, having recovered from oversold conditions but still sitting below the neutral 50 line. This positioning suggests that bearish momentum is weakening and buyers are gradually returning, though the balance of power has not yet shifted decisively in favor of the bulls.
At the same time, XRP is still trading below its 50‑day simple moving average (SMA), which currently comes in near $1.69. This moving average is acting as immediate overhead resistance. From a technical perspective, a clean, sustained break above the 50‑day SMA would be an early confirmation that a short‑term trend reversal is underway and would significantly strengthen the argument for the start of Phase 4.
Key levels to watch: resistance, support, and invalidation
For traders mapping out scenarios, several price zones stand out:
– Immediate resistance:
– Short‑term price band: $1.60-$1.70, with the 50‑day SMA at $1.69 as a critical trigger.
– A daily close and follow‑through above this zone would suggest renewed bullish momentum.
– Nearby support:
– First support area: $1.30-$1.35. This band has acted as a cushion in recent sessions and is important for maintaining the bullish retest narrative.
– Stronger structural support: around $1.20, which aligns with the upper boundary of the previously broken multi‑year triangle on many macro charts.
– Bearish invalidation:
A decisive break below $1.20 – especially if confirmed by increased volume – would undermine the notion that current price action is simply a healthy retest after a breakout. In that case, the Phase 4 thesis would need to be reconsidered, and traders might begin to look for deeper correction targets.
At this stage, XRP is effectively sitting at a technical crossroads. The market must decide whether current price action is a sideways consolidation pause before another impulse higher or the beginning of a more protracted downtrend.
How realistic is the $21.5 XRP target?
The projected $21.5 level, derived from a 6.618 Fibonacci extension, naturally captures attention. However, traders and investors should understand what this kind of target implies:
– It assumes sustained, multi‑month bullish conditions across the crypto market, not just an isolated XRP rally.
– It likely requires new inflows of institutional and retail capital, possibly triggered by regulatory clarity, major partnerships, or broad macro tailwinds such as easing monetary policy.
– It presumes that XRP can not only reclaim its previous all‑time high, but extend into price discovery far beyond it.
From a risk‑management standpoint, such a distant target should be treated as a long‑term, low‑probability scenario, not a base case. Many things can derail a macro rally: regulatory setbacks, shifts in sentiment towards risk assets, or competing narratives in other altcoins.
Macro and regulatory backdrop: a crucial part of the puzzle
Beyond chart patterns, XRP’s trajectory is heavily influenced by the wider environment:
– Global risk sentiment:
If equity markets and other risk assets remain strong and central banks move toward more accommodative policies, crypto as a whole tends to benefit. A period of tightening financial conditions, on the other hand, historically weighs on speculative assets.
– Regulatory developments:
XRP has been at the center of high‑profile regulatory discussions in major jurisdictions. Any clarity that reduces legal uncertainty can act as a catalyst, while fresh investigations or unfavorable rulings can suppress price or delay any potential Phase 4 rally.
– Competition within the crypto ecosystem:
The narrative around smart contract platforms, real‑world asset tokenization, and cross‑border settlement is evolving quickly. If XRP and the XRP Ledger manage to secure visible, real‑world use cases and integrations, it reinforces the long‑term bull case; if alternative networks capture most of that value, relative performance could lag, even in a broad bull market.
XRP Ledger fundamentals and their impact on sentiment
While this analysis is primarily technical, fundamentals still matter over longer horizons:
– Transaction throughput and fees:
The XRP Ledger is designed for fast and relatively low‑cost transactions. If usage metrics such as transaction volume and active addresses trend higher, it supports the idea that network adoption is improving.
– New products and upgrades:
Developments around decentralized exchanges, tokenization features, and enterprise‑focused solutions on top of XRP Ledger can change how investors perceive long‑term value. Fundamental progress often lags in price during the early stages, but over a cycle it can justify or challenge extreme upside targets like those suggested for Phase 4.
– Institutional interest:
Quiet accumulation by institutional players, custodians, or payment providers often does not show up in headlines immediately, but it can underpin a more sustainable rally when technical breakouts occur.
Trading strategies around a potential Phase 4 move
For market participants, the Phase 4 narrative can be translated into different approaches depending on risk tolerance and time horizon:
– Short‑term traders (swing / momentum):
– May wait for a confirmed break above the 50‑day SMA at $1.69 with strong volume.
– Could use $1.30-$1.35 as a reference area for stop‑loss placement if entering on a breakout.
– Might target intermediate levels well below the speculative $21.5 extension, such as former local highs, liquidity pockets, or psychological markers ($2, $3, $5).
– Medium‑term participants:
– May look at dips toward the $1.30-$1.35 zone as potential accumulation opportunities, provided the macro structure (above $1.20 and above the broken triangle) remains intact.
– Could scale in gradually, rather than committing fully at a single price, to manage volatility.
– Long‑term investors:
– Often focus less on precise entries and more on whether the long‑term structure (higher lows on the weekly or monthly chart) remains bullish.
– Might treat any revisit toward major structural support as part of a broader accumulation plan, accepting significant drawdowns as part of their thesis.
In all cases, position sizing and risk control are critical. The same volatility that makes triple‑digit percentage gains possible can also produce steep, rapid drawdowns.
What could invalidate the Phase 4 thesis?
Even well‑thought‑out technical roadmaps can fail. Several developments would cast serious doubt on the idea that a Phase 4 rally is imminent:
– Loss of structural support:
A breakdown below $1.20 that persists, especially if accompanied by high selling volume and a failure to reclaim that level, would suggest the prior breakout was a false one.
– Momentum failure at resistance:
Multiple strong rejections at the 50‑day SMA / $1.69 region, combined with falling RSI and MACD signals, would hint that bulls are unable to regain control.
– Negative fundamental shock:
Sudden adverse regulatory news, large‑scale security issues, or a sharp collapse in broader crypto markets could all nullify the setup, regardless of how clean the chart looks.
Recognizing these invalidation points in advance allows traders to respond objectively, rather than reacting emotionally in the heat of volatility.
Is XRP consolidating or coiling for a breakout?
Bringing the elements together, XRP is currently:
– Trading around $1.43-$1.46 after a volatile period.
– Showing stabilizing momentum on the daily chart, with RSI recovering to around 44.
– Encountering key resistance at the 50‑day SMA near $1.69.
– Resting above important supports at $1.30-$1.35 and $1.20, with the latter tied to a major multi‑year triangle breakout and retest.
From a purely technical standpoint, this is exactly the type of location where markets often choose between continuation of a larger trend and reversal into a new phase. The trader calling for a Phase 4 rally believes the odds favor an upside resolution, first toward the previous all‑time high and potentially much higher if a full expansion phase unfolds.
Whether that scenario plays out will depend not only on XRP’s own chart, but also on macro conditions, regulatory news, and the shifting tides of sentiment across the digital asset space. For now, XRP remains at a pivotal zone, and how it behaves around the $1.30-$1.70 band is likely to define the narrative for the months ahead.