XRP climbs 4% as ETF demand and triangle breakout put $1.35 in focus
XRP pushed back toward $1.13 on Tuesday, with buyers once again defending the $1.08-$1.10 demand zone and attempting to turn a routine bounce into a meaningful breakout. According to market data at press time, the token was trading near $1.13, up roughly 4.1% over the previous 24 hours.
Short-term momentum has clearly improved, but the broader picture remains mixed. XRP is still trading inside a larger descending channel that has capped every rally for months, leaving traders caught between two narratives: a possible near-term breakout and a longer-term downtrend that has not yet convincingly reversed.
Key resistance: $1.13, $1.16 and beyond
On lower timeframes, the first challenge for bulls sits around $1.13. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that XRP’s monthly chart recently flashed a TD Sequential buy signal, while the hourly chart shows price compressing within a symmetrical triangle. In his view, a decisive move above $1.13 could unlock roughly 20% upside, targeting around $1.35 if momentum holds.
Still, that is only the opening hurdle. A recent technical review placed the next major resistance closer to $1.17, followed by approximately $1.27 and $1.37 if buyers manage to keep control. On the daily chart, XRP is trading above the middle Bollinger Band near $1.11, but remains below the upper band around $1.16. A daily close above $1.16 would reinforce the recovery narrative, while a drop back under $1.11 would signal that the rebound is losing strength.
The Balance of Power indicator currently sits near 0.86, indicating strong buying on the latest daily candle. However, a single powerful reading does not equate to a trend reversal. During the broader downtrend, XRP has already delivered multiple short-lived relief rallies. For bulls, the challenge is not merely to break through resistance, but to hold reclaimed levels and build sustained volume above them.
ETF inflows underpin the bounce
Fund flows continue to provide a supportive macro backdrop. U.S.-listed spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded about $2.49 million in net inflows on July 20, based on recent data. Bitwise’s product was the only fund to see net buying that day, pushing its cumulative inflows to roughly $501 million.
Across all listed spot XRP ETFs, total assets under management are now near $1.017 billion, with cumulative net inflows around $1.489 billion. That capital represents persistent institutional and advisory demand, even as price action has struggled to break free of its broader downtrend.
This pattern has persisted through much of 2026. Spot XRP funds have collectively absorbed close to one billion tokens, while exchange-held reserves have dropped to multi‑year lows. Despite this tightening of available supply, XRP has failed to stage a durable bull run and continues to trade far below its July 2025 peak.
Over the past week alone, U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted about $6.78 million in net inflows, with listed products holding around 971 million XRP. The steady accumulation provides a cushion beneath the market, but flows alone have not been enough to negate the technical damage inflicted by the long-term downtrend. Price still needs a clear breakout signal for traders to treat the current bounce as anything more than another counter‑trend move.
Diverging long‑term scenarios
The latest upside move has sparked sharply different long‑term outlooks among analysts. Market commentator EGRAG CRYPTO argues that XRP may be in the process of forming a third macro bottom in the $0.90-$1.00 zone, underpinned by long-term exponential moving averages. In his framework, reclaiming $1.23 would be the first meaningful step, while a clean move above $1.56 would offer stronger confirmation before any push toward significantly higher targets.
Beyond those near‑term milestones, EGRAG has laid out highly ambitious long‑term projections. His roadmap points to potential moves toward $9, $15 and $31, based primarily on Fibonacci extensions mapped onto a hypothetical future macro breakout. Even he acknowledges, however, that the third bottom pattern is not fully validated and that these upper targets remain speculative.
Chart analyst ChartNerd takes a more conservative stance. He notes that XRP remains locked in a long-term downtrend following a bearish crossover between the 20‑week and 50‑week exponential moving averages earlier in 2026. In his view, even rallies toward about $1.29 or $1.60 could meet heavy selling pressure as long as the token trades beneath its larger descending structure.
That broader technical context remains a constraint. Recent studies still position XRP below key descending resistance lines on higher timeframes. While short‑term price action has improved, the long-term structure has yet to flip decisively bullish.
Triangle breakout vs. macro downtrend
The symmetrical triangle highlighted by Martinez has become the focal point of the immediate setup. A push toward $1.35 would effectively validate that triangle breakout on shorter timeframes and confirm that buyers have won the latest battle. However, this victory would not automatically translate into a full‑scale trend reversal.
For the long-term outlook to change, XRP would need to reclaim higher weekly resistance areas and break above the upper boundary of the descending channel that has framed price for months. The current environment is therefore defined by a tension between improving momentum on the daily and intraday charts and the still‑dominant bearish trend on the weekly and monthly charts.
Critical levels to watch
In the short term, the most important reference points sit close to the current price:
– Around $1.11: aligned with the middle Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe, acting as the first layer of support.
– Around $1.16: overlapping with the upper Bollinger Band and short‑term resistance; a daily close above this level would significantly strengthen the bullish case.
– Around $1.17-$1.20: a congestion zone flagged by earlier analysis, where prior rallies have stalled.
– Around $1.27-$1.37: higher resistance band that could come into play if the triangle breakout extends toward Martinez’s $1.35 target.
If buyers lose the $1.11-$1.10 area, attention would shift back to the $1.08-$1.00 region, and ultimately toward the $0.90 zone that some analysts view as a possible macro‑bottom area.
How ETF flows interact with technicals
The disconnect between strong ETF demand and subdued price action has become a key talking point. In classical market theory, sustained accumulation by large funds alongside falling exchange reserves would be expected to drive a pronounced uptrend. For XRP, that relationship has been muted.
Several factors may be at play. First, ETF accumulation may be offset by selling from early holders or other large entities, diluting the impact of buy‑side flows. Second, macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting risk appetite can weigh on crypto valuations across the board, even when individual assets see solid fundamental demand. Finally, the shadow of previous cycles-where XRP rallied aggressively and then corrected just as sharply-may be encouraging many traders to sell into strength rather than hold for a prolonged run.
From a trading standpoint, ETF inflows can be seen as a supportive undercurrent rather than a direct trigger. They create a floor of institutional interest but do not erase resistance levels or negate bearish technical patterns. That is why many analysts insist that price must still break and hold above key horizontal and diagonal resistance before a new bull phase can be declared.
Short‑term traders vs. long‑term holders
The current structure creates very different environments depending on time horizon. Short‑term traders are likely focused on the symmetrical triangle, Bollinger Bands and nearby resistance clusters. For them, the main questions are whether XRP can sustain a move above $1.13-$1.16, how far a potential breakout could run toward $1.27-$1.37, and where to position stop‑loss levels below $1.11 and $1.08.
Long‑term holders, by contrast, are watching weekly EMAs, the descending channel and macro support zones. They may see the $0.90-$1.00 region as an area to accumulate or defend, while treating levels like $1.23 and $1.56 as key checkpoints on the path to a genuine structural reversal. For these investors, short‑term volatility inside the range is less relevant than the eventual resolution of the long-term downtrend.
Risk factors that could derail the rally
Even with positive ETF flows and improving short‑term momentum, XRP remains vulnerable to several risks:
– A broad market pullback in major cryptocurrencies could drag XRP lower regardless of its own technical setup.
– Failure to hold newly reclaimed resistance levels as support-especially around $1.13 and $1.16-would enhance the case that this move is just another corrective rally inside a larger decline.
– Renewed selling by large holders or profit‑taking near $1.27-$1.37 could cap upside and reassert the descending channel.
– A deterioration in macroeconomic conditions or risk sentiment could reduce demand for crypto‑related ETFs, slowing the supportive inflow trend.
Because of these uncertainties, many technically oriented traders are adopting a “confirmation first” approach-waiting to see if XRP can sustain breakouts on higher timeframes rather than chasing every intraday spike.
What would a convincing reversal look like?
For a true trend reversal, analysts typically look for a cluster of signals rather than a single breakout. In XRP’s case, a more convincing shift would likely involve:
– A decisive weekly close above the upper boundary of the descending channel.
– A bullish recross of the 20‑week EMA above the 50‑week EMA.
– Sustained trading above key horizontal levels such as $1.23 and $1.56.
– Rising spot volumes and ETF inflows occurring alongside higher prices, rather than merely supporting sideways action.
Until those conditions are met, many will regard projections toward $9, $15 or $31 as long‑dated scenarios tied to a future cycle, not immediate expectations.
Outlook: cautious optimism with technical hurdles
For now, XRP’s 4% rise toward $1.13, backed by renewed ETF inflows and a tightening triangle pattern, offers bulls a window of opportunity. A breakout above $1.13 and then $1.16 could open the door toward the $1.27-$1.37 region and validate the short‑term bullish setups.
Yet the market is still wrestling with a wider descending structure, bearish weekly signals and a history of failed rallies. The divide between strengthening short‑term momentum and lingering long‑term weakness remains the central dynamic. As long as XRP stays trapped beneath its larger resistance framework, any rally toward $1.35 will be treated as a test of that structure rather than proof that a new macro uptrend has begun.